FC Bayern – Werder Bremen: a Bundesliga classic. The clubs are now worlds apart. Can the climber still – and without Niclas Füllkrug – cause a surprise? And how much does Bayern actually miss Robert Lewandowski?
The fact that Werder are only seven points behind the long-time champions and Bundesliga leaders before the game on Tuesday (8.30 p.m./in the NDR Livecenter) is a surprise – and the result of the strong performances of the newly promoted team. But nobody on the Weser is so presumptuous to expect a win at Bayern.
“Munich is the most difficult away game on paper,” stressed Werder coach Ole Werner. “We know that Bayern are Bayern and that they are incredibly strong, especially at home. But the team and I are really excited about the game,” said Marco Friedl, who was under contract with FCB himself until 2018.
The Bayern goal machine works without Lewandowski
After a weak phase for a few weeks, the Munich team have started the goal machine again and inevitably draw attention to someone who is no longer there: Robert Lewandowski. The Pole, now under contract with FC Barcelona, has reached the spheres of Gerd Müller at FC Bayern in recent years. And every football fan knows what that means.
But are Bayern actually worse without him? Although final statements can only be made later in the season, it is already clear that Lewandowski’s departure has hit Bayern much less hard than many had expected.
Compared to the previous season, the champions have even scored more goals (currently 3.2 per game / last season 2.9). The style of play has changed only marginally, the efficiency of attacks has even improved, as GSN data shows.
Choupo-Moting takes center stage
Lewandowski’s position as a true centre-forward has now been taken over by a professional who has never really been the center of attention during his career: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. The 33-year-old has scored nine goals in the last seven competitive games. “When he’s fit, we know he has exceptional quality and he’s showing it now,” praised Bayern coach Julian Nagelsmann.
“You need a perfect day in Munich and a bit of luck.”
— Werder coach Ole Werner
With all due respect for the native of Hamburg: Lewandowski’s skills are far from his. The GSN data shows a clear overperformance for the past games. Means: Choupo-Moting scored much better than expected.
Werder’s Herculean task: stop Bayern’s offensive
Nevertheless, it will also be important for Werder to neutralize Choupo-Moting. In any case, an above-average defensive performance is necessary if Bremen want to have a chance at all.
Above all, the center should be closed. Bayern play most of their attacks through the middle (28 per game) and are also the most efficient when it comes to finishing. 25 percent of attacks end with a shot on goal.
The game is driven by the famous Jamal Musiala, supported in the offensive row of three by Serge Gnabry and Sadio Mané. Werder’s central defenders and midfielders need to be extremely focused to get this trio under control.
Musiala in particular (eight goals this season and four assists) is very difficult to defend in space, so Werder coach Werner could even think about a kind of man marking for the national player.
“The room for mistakes with and against the ball is very small. You have to do everything at the highest speed and with the highest quality,” Werner also knows.
Defense strength and efficiency are required
What Bremen definitely have to do better than before: prevent shots on goal. The promoted team has so far allowed 13 deals per game. Weaker teams also get shots relatively often against Werder. This rate must drop significantly against Bayern, otherwise Bremen will not have a chance.
Exceptional defense is the one key to creating an upset. The second is high efficiency on offense. Although Bayern usually clearly dominate their games, there are always phases in which they allow the opponent opportunities, most recently clearly seen in the 3-2 victory in Berlin.
Filling jug is missing, it depends on the way
And Werder certainly has the staff to use weaknesses in Munich. However, striker Niclas Füllkrug is out with a back injury – a significant handicap for the outsider. However, the attacker should be ready for action again next weekend against Leipzig.
A key player on Tuesday is Mitchell Weiser. He is currently in excellent form (performance score of 63.34) and also has the advantage that Bayern are not optimally manned on the left side of defence. Alphonso Davies is injured, his representative Lucas Hernandez has little match practice.
What is the “Performance Score”?
- Goals, passes, fouls, shots or offside positions: the basic game data and further analyzes such as “Expected goals” or “Action scores” are placed in a higher-level context by an algorithm in the “Performance Score” – for example position-related.
- In the “Performance Score” all players are initially set to 0 and are evaluated on the basis of pure performance data combined with data models.
- This value provides an assessment of how well or poorly a player is currently playing.
- The “Performance Score” is a component of the GSN Index, which in turn is a general, long-term evaluation of all skills, potential and qualities of a player.
However, Werder plays most of the attacks in the middle, and Bayern also allow the most in this area. So that could fit for the climber, even if Füllkrug isn’t there. Marvin Ducksch and probably Oliver Burke are then required.
On Tuesday, other than the filling pitcher will have to ensure Bremen’s first victory in Munich since the legendary 5-2 in September 2008. Sounds unrealistic? It may be, but even if the big surprises in football are becoming increasingly rare: every now and then they succeed.
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NDR 2 Sports | 11/08/2022 | 11:03 p.m
