Everton FC’s 2-0 defeat at reigning treble winners Manchester City last weekend (go to the match report) extended the Toffees’ winless streak in the Premier League to seven games (go to the form table). As a result, Sean Dyche’s team spent last week in relegation place 18. As disappointing as this snapshot is for the club and supporters, there are also facts around Goodison Park that give hope for staying in the league.
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After all, the team from Merseyside kept the English champions at bay for 71 minutes on matchday 24 before Erling Haaland scored from a corner to give the Skyblues the lead. In fact, it’s perhaps no surprise that the Norwegian superstar only managed to score his 16th goal of the season from a set-piece in this game. Everton’s defensive record in open play is remarkable: in 24 league games to date, Dyche’s team have only conceded 15 goals out of the game – no team has better statistics in this regard in the current Premier League season, only title contenders Arsenal and Liverpool are on the same level as the toffees.
Everton have currently conceded 32 goals in the league. For comparison: Table 17. Luton have conceded 45 goals so far, the two teams under Everton – Burnley and Sheffield United – already have 50 and 60 respectively. Dyche’s team not only claims the best defensive record in the bottom half of the table, they also have the fifth best defense in the English upper house. And that fact alone could save the club from relegation in May. The initially meager result of 19 points on paper is primarily due to the 10-point deduction that was imposed on Everton in December (background). The current standings in the table do not reflect the potential that lies in the squad worth around 337 million euros.
If you exclude the point deduction, Dyche’s team scored an average of 1.21 points per game this season. That’s the second-best return of any team in the bottom half of the table – level with Fulham and just behind Chelsea’s 1.35 points per game. If one assumes that the team can maintain this average, not least thanks to its stable defense, it would end the season with 36 points. A record that, looking back, is usually enough to ensure relegation in the Premier League. So will Everton FC be able to avoid relegation? It will probably be close, but the numbers speak for it.
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