The West has magnified its geopolitical opponents, writes professor Jonathan Holslag in his book From wall to wall. So whatever happens at the Ukrainian border, the fact remains: Europe cannot do without Russian gas. Time to put an end to ‘pretend politics’.
“We have made Russia strong. Russia earns about 100 billion euros a year from energy exports to Europe. We have created Russian power ourselves,” says Jonathan Holslag (40), professor of international politics at the Free University of Brussels and former special adviser to European Commissioner Frans Timmermans.
Europe’s vulnerability has been palpable these weeks as Vladimir Putin has congregated 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine. Our dependence on China came to light during the corona pandemic: when the supply lines came to a standstill, we turned out to be producing very little ourselves.
The West has magnified its geopolitical opponents, Holslag writes in his book published last year From wall to wall. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the West was at the height of its power, but neglected its geopolitical interests through a fixation on money and short-term profit. Europe became dependent on Russian gas. Both Europe and America failed to innovate and make their industries more sustainable. They preferred to have products produced as cheaply as possible in China, without worrying too much about the environment, human rights and working conditions.
Through its opportunism, the West made its rivals rich, Holslag writes: ‘One of the most important achievements of three decades of liberalism is that it has strengthened authoritarianism.’
Meanwhile, the global South has been neglected, especially Africa, leaving Europe facing growing migratory flows. In the West itself, social cohesion was declining; social inequality increased and in the cult of money and success the losers feel misunderstood. On all fronts, the West is paying the price for its ‘reckless consumerism’, as Holslag calls it. More than thirty years after the fall of the Wall, we are rich, but afraid. New walls are rising everywhere to hold back the outside world, from the United States to Greece.
In a biting analysis, Holslag views the world as a panorama of threats. ‘I found it difficult to write this book,’ he says, in the Eerste Klas restaurant in Amsterdam Central Station. ‘You hold up a mirror to the West, but you are also part of Western society yourself. If you then have to make up that ruthless balance, that’s not pleasant.’
The crisis in Ukraine confronts us with our impotence. What can we do if Russia attacks?
“The West will impose financial sanctions, the Russians will be expelled from the international payment system Swift, and there will be tech bargoes. A number of Russian companies are going to suffer very hard, the Russian economy will be hit hard. The fact remains: Europe cannot do without Russian gas. Russian gas imports may decrease, but Putin’s business model will be preserved.
‘The result is a growing gulf between Western and Eastern Europe. Eastern Europeans will wonder why we don’t go further with sanctions and military measures. Distrust will also increase between the United States and Europe. In that respect, Putin has already got his loot: the West is weakened.’
Has Europe woken up now? You can see the ghosts change. In Brussels, everyone talks about ‘strategic autonomy’, which should make Europe less dependent on others.
“What worries me, when I occasionally get involved in the debates in the Brussels bubble, is that the challenges are acknowledged, but the response is often very limited, due to a lack of consensus. It’s one thing to recognize the problems, it’s another to act on them when you have to bear the repercussions.
‘We have been talking about a more realistic energy strategy ever since I was walking around in Brussels. Nevertheless, despite many warnings, we have continued to increase our dependence on geopolitical competitors like Russia. Even when we are being confronted with the facts, you see a number of countries procrastinating. Germany still won’t say it’s really done with the Nord Stream gas pipeline if something happens in Ukraine.’
You hit us hard. Europe still consists of successful countries where life is good.
‘I totally agree with that. I think we are in the most beautiful region possible. That’s also the reason I’m still here, I’ve had plenty of opportunities to work in America or Asia. But I love Europe. Just look at this beautiful bistro where we are sitting now. I am attached to the European project, to the Euro-Atlantic values. But you can’t deny that the project is under a lot of pressure. I regularly quote Livy: in times of prosperity it is very difficult to take that step back and wonder how solid that prosperity is.’
We should think less about money and more about our interests.
‘I’m very much for the free market, but as Adam Smith wrote in The Theory of Moral Sentiments: that market must function on the basis of a certain morality. If we want Europe to remain as beautiful as it is today, then that market must reflect part of our values and ideals. The way you earn money should contribute to a better, stronger and more dignified society. We have failed to do that a lot over the past thirty years.
In From wall to wall Holslag does not shy away from moralism. The West is in a ‘decadent trap’, he writes: ‘It has specialized in consumption, in lawyers, in restaurants and shops, has not invested enough in productivity and has allowed debts to mount.’
Is there a way out? How should the West strengthen its position in the world? There are no easy solutions, says Holslag: ‘The feasibility of society is fairly limited, that of world politics is even more limited.’ Europe must strengthen its defense and reduce its dependence on Russian gas through ‘a smart network of sun in the south, wind in the north and nuclear power plants’, says Holslag.
It is possible to cooperate with Russia and China, but it is less opportunistic and short-sighted than has happened in the past thirty years, says Holslag: ‘Then you accept that such countries do not change overnight. But you do look: are they taking steps in the right direction? And above all: is the cooperation balanced? Do we both get the same amount, also in the long run? How does the collaboration affect the balance of power?’
The best defense against powerful competitors such as China is to strengthen its own society, he says. Investing in innovation and production, in an ‘economy of dignity’ that is sustainable, that keeps knowledge and high-quality production in the West, offers citizens good jobs and promotes social cohesion.
With the Green Deal, the European Union is trying to create such a sustainable, high-quality economy. A carbon tax should be introduced at the border, making less sustainable imports from China and other countries more expensive, to prevent cleaner European producers from being outcompeted by cheaper, more polluting imports. The levy applies to a number of sectors, such as the steel, aluminum and fertilizer sectors.
‘This means that the carbon tax only covers 4 percent of Chinese imports,’ says Holslag. “Again you see: we know there is a problem, we indicate that we will act on it, but you see that we do not want to bite the bullet and make no sacrifice to correct things. And that sacrifice is going to be big, whether it be Russian energy or Chinese imports.
‘We have too much ‘pretend politics’ in which we act as if we are reforming, while only fighting the symptoms. I have a lot of problems with that. Either you’re scurrilous and say, ‘I don’t give a shit, or you’re serious.’
You may think that the Green Deal does not go far enough, but a politician like Frans Timmermans is trying to steer Europe in the right direction, right?
‘I worked as a special advisor for Frans. I have a lot of respect for him. I am also a big proponent of a Green Deal. But I said: I cannot defend the carbon tax at the border in this form. I can’t come to terms with myself when I have to defend something that doesn’t work.
‘Why is it that investment in the manufacturing industry hardly increases, even though we are experiencing a golden moment of cheap money? Because it is cheaper to have it made in China, where you do not have to comply with environmental regulations, and to import it via Rotterdam or Antwerp. I fear that the Green Deal will largely remain a slogan as long as we do not reach a link with foreign trade. We tend to hide behind slogans and roaring statements.’
Without cheap imports, purchasing power will plummet. In the 1980s, a TV set cost a month’s salary.
‘We have known for twenty years that trade with China is unbalanced. That the Chinese with their state capitalism do all sorts of unpleasant things with the money they earn from us, that they maintain a model that is not ours at all.
“But it’s very difficult to make that switch. Let’s say you say we’re going to apply a carbon tax on all our imports. So all the stuff that now comes to us via Ali Express, Amazon and Bol.com, there is an additional 15 percent. Then you have a revolution.’
The yellow vests revolted because of an increase in the excise tax on diesel by 6.5 cents per liter.
“I think you’ll see all the colors of the rainbow in vests. The transition will be very difficult and it is important that you help the weakest. On the other hand, we threaten in a race to the bottom if we don’t make that tilt. If valuable activities disappear from Europe, the most vulnerable will also be affected. Not because of the price of the stuff, but because of a lack of good jobs. In addition, if China makes it home, by 2030 or 2040, they will no longer feel the need to produce our stuff as cheaply as possible. Then Chinese products will become more expensive.’
You paint a bleak picture. It is not so surprising that some people say: let the West retreat behind a wall.
“There is no realm that has ever held its own behind walls. Walls give people an alibi to do nothing. The extreme right says: we are making a Fortress Europe, and within that fortress we will continue to sleep well. That is as pernicious as thirty years of neoliberal policy. The neoliberals said: just consume, and the market will make it right. The far right is now saying: consume it, and the fortress will make sure it’s all right. In this way they perpetuate the weakening of Europe.’