He PSOE has wrapped as legislative pacts the agreements with CKD and Together. However, its two Catalan partners have insisted on linking the stability of the future Government to the progress and compliance of what was signed. The guarantee of governability, with support for the budgets and the main laws, will depend on Republicans and post-convergents seeing their expectations met in the parallel negotiations that will begin after the investiture. The continuity of the Dialogue Table between the Government and the Generalitat, in the case of ERC, and that of parties, with an international verification mechanism, in that of Junts. The objectives set by the independentists are still similar and the struggle when capitalizing on demands It was already evident in this investiture negotiation, so the socialists will have to strike a difficult balance to satisfy both partners.
The PSOE negotiators already recognized at the start of the talks with the Catalan independentists that “governance matters relatively little to them“What matters to them is who has hegemony in Catalonia.” A budget that will condition the legislature and the need for socialists balancing. Distribute flags and prominence, without favoring one party over the other. A methodology that was attempted to be practiced in the investiture conversations. Without the expected success, since when the announcement of the agreement with ERC was rushed, the post-convergents chose to postpone theirs one week longer than expected.
A “fit of jealousy”, as interpreted by other parliamentary allies, or a “staging” of former president Carles Puigdemont to mark ground, according to socialist sources, which gives the measure of what is to come. Although in public the leaders of the PSOE speak of agreements for a stable legislature, in private there are many leaders who assume great difficulties due to the competition between their partners and the “devilish arithmetic”. The numbers require the support of all allied groups of the investiture, only allowing the abstention of one of them if the Canarian Coalition enters the equation.
Support for the Next year’s budgets is taken for granted given its immediacy. The acting Ministry of Finance has been working on the project for weeks to start processing it as soon as it crosses the Rubicon of the investiture. According to the calculations carried out in the department led by María Jesús Montero, the current accounts would only have to be extended a few weeks from the beginning of 2024. An optimistic calendar due to the capacity of the Senate, with an absolute majority of the PP, to slow down the process of approval. Although the vote in favor of ERC and Junts for these first accounts of the legislature is driven by the investiture pact, the Government will have to make gestures now because the respective negotiating tables They will start almost immediately.
Imminent and ongoing meetings
The agreement with Junts states that the first negotiation meeting will be held this November, while that of ERC refers to “periodic meetings” of the Dialogue Table. Furthermore, the text signed with the post-convergent parties specifies the two major questions that will be raised and even the positions with which both negotiating teams will come forward. Regarding the area of “national recognition,” Junts will propose “the holding of a self-determination referendum on the political future of Catalonia protected by article 92 of the Constitution.” The PSOE, for its part, will defend the development of the Statute.
Regarding financing, the post-convergents will support the modification of the organic law of financing of the autonomous communities (LOFCA) for the transfer of “the 100% of all taxes”. The socialists will propose measures in line with the partial forgiveness of debt, agreed with ERC, and a plan to facilitate the return to Catalonia of the headquarters of the companies that left through the ‘procés’.
Stability and progress
The agreement with the Republicans talks about “promoting institutional dialogue between governments on the political future of Catalonia” and the need for “progress at a constant and satisfactory pace for both parties. Likewise, it is committed to addressing in this forum “the debate on the way in which the agreements that can be reached on the political framework of Catalonia can be endorsed by the Catalan people.” Although the president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, assessed after the agreement with the PSOE that now would be the time “to move towards the referendum“, the wording is more ambiguous. It refers to “the need for the agreements reached as a political result of the dialogue to be endorsed by the citizens.
What both agreements agree on is in linking the viability of the legislature to the progress of their negotiating tables. In the case of ERC, the pact states that “the deputies of ERC will support the investiture of Pedro Sánchez and, in parallel with the fulfillment of the commitments acquired in this agreement, they will provide stability to the legislature through negotiation.” . The one from Junts specifies in its last point that both parties agree “the stability of the legislature, subject to progress and compliance with the agreements resulting from the negotiations”.
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ERC and Junts, who will look askance at what each one achieves, reserve the ability to overthrow budgets or decrees related to the recovery plan and precipitate an electoral advance. Puigdemont himself, this Thursday During his speech, he made it clear that the guarantees of carrying out the commitments have to do with their ability to make the legislature fail. “Unlike the last legislature, in which Pedro Sánchez had stability guaranteed from the beginning, now he will have to earn it agreement by agreement, day by day. Without compliance, the legislature will have no path and will end up in the trash can of history,” he warned.
The spirit of all parties is in favor of the Government. keep these negotiations in the shadows -and the names of the interlocutors at the table with Junts-. At least, discretion in the development of the folders by the work groups according to the milestones and calendars that are set. Not so much the risks entailed by the struggle between ERC and Junts to capitalize on the progress at their own negotiating tables, especially as the elections approach. Catalans planned for early 2025.