After a period of uncertainty marked by high inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, recent advances in fiscal and monetary policies open a range of opportunities, although they also pose short-term challenges.
The control of the blue dollar, which has maintained a downward trend since July, aligning today with the official one around $1,050, generates a mixed scenario for developers. On the one hand, construction costs measured in dollars reached very high levels, ranging between US$1,300 and US$1,700 per m2 depending on the type of work.which puts pressure on profitability margins. This especially impacts those who financed projects at fixed prices in dollars or with adjustments tied to the currency, compromising their ability to comply.
However, economic stabilization brings with it a medium and long-term opportunity: with the reduction in inflation (2.7% in October) and rising real wages, more families will be able to plan for the future and access credit. This environment favors the reactivation of financial tools such as mortgage loans, essential to meet the demand of 7 million families looking for a home.
In the case of UVA loans, the risk of a mismatch between the evolution of the index and salaries has been a significant obstacle, as occurred in the previous attempt of this type of loan in 2016/2017. During these last months of 2024 the trend seems to be favorable in that sense, with salaries growing faster than UVA (August 2024: UVA 4.3% vs. salaries 5.7% / September 2024: UVA 3.7% vs. salaries 4.7%).
At Spazios, we have designed personalized financing plans in pesos adjusted by the CAC index, allowing middle-class families to access a home with a minimum down payment in dollars and installments adapted to their economic reality. From a study that we carried out internally with clients, we have come to the conclusion that 9 out of 10 would not be able to access a mortgage loan, under current conditions. That is why our personalized financing, with advance payments in installments, and then 10, 20 or 30-year plans in pesos, allows us to cover a sector of the population that wants to fulfill the dream of owning their own home. This modality has been chosen by more than 4,700 families, thanks to our two decades of experience, more than a dozen buildings delivered and more than 20 projects currently in development.
Meanwhile, the reduction of devaluation expectations also positively influences financing and debt-taking decisions. With an official exchange rate projected to adjust to a rate that converges with inflation at around 1% per month in 2025, families feel greater confidence in planning long-term investments such as the purchase of a home. In addition, the banking system begins to redirect its efforts towards financing the private sector, facilitating access to credit.
In this way, the Argentine real estate market faces a crucial moment. While economic stabilization paves the way for sustained growth, the challenge of reducing dollar costs and improving profitability margins remains. The key will be a balance between the reduction of distortionary regulations and taxes and the progressive increase in the value of the square meter, which starts from historically low levels.
With the reappearance of tools such as mortgage loans, wage recovery and inflation under control, the real estate market is well positioned to respond to growing housing demand. For those looking to invest or acquire a property, this is an auspicious moment, marked by a horizon of stability and confidence.
* Sebastián Loggio is a financial advisor for the developer Spazios.
by Sebastian Loggio
