Fiorentina and West Ham will decide this season’s Conference League victory.
West Ham will face Fiorentina in the final match. PDO
The most interesting game of the day
The evening’s Conference League final will start with top-level starting positions. West Ham, ranked fourteenth in the Premier League, is the marginal favorite in the match against Fiorentina, ranked eighth in Serie A, based on the betting odds. For me, the match looks like a draw in practice.
The match is the most important for both clubs in terms of success for decades. The last time Fiorentina won any trophy from UEFA competitions was in 1961 (Cup Winners’ Cup). West Ham’s previous European success also comes from the Cup Winners’ Cup, which the Londoners won in 1965. So both teams have 60 years of hunger for success behind them.
In this sense, the Conference League has done its job more than well. This way, even the smaller clubs get opportunities for big matches, and the audience gets the chance to see slightly different teams in high-stakes championship fights. The motivation side of the teams is also at its peak today.
In principle, it is even a little difficult to assess the mutual power relations between Fiorentina and West Ham. Fiorentina played a fairly expected season in Serie A. Maybe there would have been potential even a couple of steps higher. West Ham’s season in the Premier League started in the wrong direction in the fall, and the long-continued discussions about the position of manager David Moyes did not help the team to find a game harmony or a winning rhythm at any point. At their level, however, West Ham pulled themselves out of relegation at the end of the season. It would have had the potential for a much better investment.
In terms of motivation/mental state, I think Fiorentina will enter this match from slightly better starting points than West Ham. The team doesn’t have a big trauma from their own series or a fight that continued until the last one. West Ham was even on the verge of relegation for a long time, and it leaves a small question mark as to whether the spring battles in the Premier League consumed so much resources that the team can no longer put on the best possible performance.
I count a small advantage here for Fiorentina, as the team has more matches than West Ham before the final. West Ham has played only two matches in the last three weeks, and it is five days more since the last game than Fiorentina. You shouldn’t make big changes to the forces here, but I still put a little emphasis on this. And of course, Fiorentina coach Vincenzo Italiano has rotated his players in the last matches as he sees fit. Basically, Fiorentina should be considered better prepared for this game than West Ham.
In terms of formations, the teams reach the finals with almost optimal starting positions. Fiorentina have no injury concerns at all and West Ham also only lacks long-term patient Gianluca Scamacca, who is suffering from a knee injury.
Regarding the balance of power in this match, I was in favor of Fiorentina for a long time compared to the market (including Veikkaus), but during Wednesday the market has also made the game a completely even book, so there is no longer a betting advantage to be found there. In terms of the number of goals, the finals should always be approached first from the point of view of few goals. However, neither Fiorentina nor West Ham are typically low-scoring teams, so this time there might be a slightly livelier and more goal-scoring display than average. Unders are not attractive betting options this time. As the best bet of the match, I put it somewhat atypically that both teams will score with a coefficient of 1.81. Veikkaus’ offer is right in line with the market, and even this is not a multiplier in itself. Fiorentina – West Ham starts at 22:00.
The best betting tip of the day
The best bet search for Wednesday can be found in the domestic Veikkausliiga. In the Pirkanmaa derby, Haka – Ilves, there are strong signs of abundance in the air. Both teams have clearly scored more goals in their last matches than at the beginning of the season, albeit for different reasons.
Haka’s defensive play against KuPS and FC Inter has broken down surprisingly badly, and the opponents have sunk a total of six goals into the Valkeakoski team’s net in the two previous league games. Ilves, on the other hand, has made its offensive game, which was completely stuck since the beginning of the season, work better recently.
On the Veikkausliiga side, the team has scored two goals against FC Lahte and VPS, and in the 1-1 draw against HJK, Ilves was offensively even more dangerous than its opponent. In addition, Ilves has had the chance to hone its goal scoring in two easy Cup matches against KäPa and NOPS. In those matches, Ilves stretched the nets a total of eight times.
In my opinion, the local nature of the match also raises the goal expectation here. Fire support for the over also gets Haka from the number of goals so far in this season’s Veikkausliiga home matches. 16 goals have been scored in the team’s four home games. At least Haka does not play particularly carefully or defensively at home. The 1.62 offered for more than 2.0 goals is valid up to the coupon with an estimate of 64 percent. Haka – Ilves starts at 18:00
Games of the day: Haka – Ilves, over 2.0 goals (coefficient 1.62).
The total balance of the day’s games for the year: 61/111/95%
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