“Nobody knows what Putin is going to do except Putin himself,” has been the refrain of analysts searching for firm ground in the worst Russian-Western crisis since the Cold War in recent days. And perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin himself doesn’t know it yet.
But if Russia soon proceeds to an attack, it could turn out afterwards that Olaf Scholz was the last head of government who had previously sat at the table with Putin in the Kremlin. That possibility will rest heavily on the shoulders of the German chancellor when he boards a plane to Moscow on Tuesday. All the more so because his actions in the crisis have so far been mostly criticized. International allies accused Berlin of a tame attitude towards Moscow, German critics complained that Scholz barely showed himself.
The stakes are huge. Putin has created a range of options around Ukraine, from doing nothing, through a limited invasion, to taking Ukraine completely. The US says an invasion could start ‘any moment’. The German government calls the situation “extremely dangerous†
But Russia itself said today that the possibilities for a diplomatic solution are “far from exhausted”. On Wednesday, February 16, the date the US cites as the possible start of a Russian attack, Putin . drinks tea in the Kremlin with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
Breakthrough
Amid this diplomatic and military shadow play, it becomes difficult for Scholz to force a breakthrough. He travels primarily to Moscow to convince Putin that Germany is an unshakable building block in a wall of Western unity. In that regard, Scholz can do little but repeat his message of the past few months, says Marcel Dirsus, a political analyst at the Institute for Security Studies at the University of Kiel.
“What Putin wants are guarantees that Ukraine will not move further towards NATO,” Dirsus said. ‘I don’t think Scholz has a decisive influence in that regard. The chancellor will especially want to make clear in Moscow that Germany is prepared to bear the consequences for its own economy in the event of heavy sanctions on Russia, in the event of an attack on Ukraine.’
Berlin not only has a long and special relationship with Russia, with a preference for cooperation and dialogue with Moscow, certainly within Scholz’s social-democratic SPD; Germany is too the largest foreign investor in Russia† From family businesses in the German manufacturing industry to the big banks and the energy sector, further economic sanctions against Russia will also wreak havoc on German companies.
No weapons for Ukraine
On Monday, Scholz was in Kiev, where he spoke with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Just before Scholz’s departure, Ukraine sent Germany – again – a wish list of defensive weapons and other military means. Kiev this time asked for 12 thousand advanced anti-tank missiles. But the list also included: communication tools, radar equipment, night vision goggles, robots for the dismantling of mines and other explosives, observation technology, combat helmets and bulletproof clothing.
The German government has so far refused to ship weapons to Ukraine, and it is unlikely that Berlin will change that policy a day before Scholz’s meeting with Putin. However, according to German media, Berlin is looking at the possibilities of supplying non-lethal military means.
In Kiev, Germany promised mainly economic and political support on Monday. Scholz pledged 300 million euros in new loans for Ukraine. That amount is in addition to the more than 1.8 billion euros in aid which Germany has already given to Ukraine in donations and loans since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 – more money than any other country. The money has been used for reconstruction and humanitarian aid, among other things. “We are unequivocally by your side,” Scholz said after the two-hour conversation with the Ukrainian president.
Scholz will be able to consider his options in his own home on Monday evening. Although Kiev is an hour’s flight from Moscow, the German government plane Theodor Heuss returned to Berlin on Monday evening. Thus Scholz’s visit to Putin in Moscow on Tuesday will be a full-fledged state visit, and not just an appendix following Scholz’s trip to Kiev. Bad for the environment, conducive to the diplomatic process.