“They will be enjoying themselves there in the Kremlin,” says Angela Stent. “Look how they put the Americans to work.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken flies all over Europe, goes to NATO for consultations, then to the European Union. Anxious bubbles go back and forth from one leader to another. “The Russians watch with amusement as everyone in front of them is running in circles.”
Stent is one of the United States’ leading experts in Russia. She was an adviser to Bill Clinton when Yugoslavia fell apart, advised George W. Bush around the time Russia and Georgia were at war. Stent has been following the vicissitudes between the two world powers for forty years. As Professor Emeritus of International Relations, the 75-year-old teaches at Georgetown University.
“Looking from Russia, the current situation looks good,” said Stent. There is a lot of confusion about the next step the Russians are going to take. ‘Ukraine is insecure and the West appears weak…’
Do you think they will do it? Is Russia going to invade Ukraine?
“They’re going to do something, I think. They could occupy more territory in the Donbass, a wider incursion is also possible. But the Russians know very well what the consequences will be of a major military conflict; the enormous sanctions and isolation. That would tarnish their standing on the world stage. So maybe they stick to cyber-attacks. Stirring up some unrest, as they are doing now, and hope to be able to drag concessions out of the tensions.’
Can the Americans learn lessons from the Cold War?
Their most important lesson back then was that containment, contain, works. For decades the Americans tried to contain the Soviet Union with their allies and finally it fell apart in 1991, the system was too weak. In the Cold War, outbreaks of two major conflicts were averted in time, the Berlin crisis in 1958 and the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. The lesson then was: don’t listen to the demands of the Russians and wait for them to calm down.’
Now the Americans are not listening to the Russian demand not to admit Ukraine to NATO. Do they use the same tactics?
“Yes, they are trying to deter Putin from invading Ukraine. And they are trying to avert a military conflict. One difference with then is that there is now a chance of a broad European war. It never got that far during the Cold War, with the exception of Berlin. The situation now is much more unpredictable.’
De-escalation was also a lesson from the Cold War. Still, the Americans have 8,500 troops ready to send to Eastern Europe.
This is primarily a warning from the Americans. It would only escalate if they actually sent the troops that way. But the Americans have to do something. With all those troops at the border, the Russians give the impression that they can invade at any moment.’
What is the American strategy?
“They are holding diplomatic talks, hoping to allay some of the Russians’ security concerns, but without going too far into their demands. In addition, they strengthen the position of Ukraine with weapons. Third, they threaten sanctions. Diplomacy and deterrence is what they did during the Cold War, the question is whether it works now.’
What the Americans think is especially important is a stable relationship with the Russians. They are both nuclear powers, so it should not get out of hand. But according to Stent, stability proves difficult to achieve because they each have a different idea of what a good relationship is.
Stent: ‘Putin wants more influence in his region without opposition. The Americans want to cooperate with the Russians in areas such as arms control, technology and science.’
Angela Stent briefly disappears from her laptop screen and returns with the Dutch translation of her latest book. With an American accent she reads the Dutch title: Putin’s Russia. In that Russia she has been a lot, she says, she met Vladimir Putin herself, with other scientists. Stent knows how important Ukraine has always been to Putin — but there’s more to this latest upsurge in the conflict, she says, that isn’t talked about enough: Putin’s legacy. “He’s turning 70 in October,” Stent says, “and he’s very much looking back.”
Putin has some things to put right, says Stent. “He wants to let the world know: in the 1990s we were forced to do things we didn’t want to do. We had to follow the NATO agenda against our will in the Balkan wars. That time is over.’
Putin is after Russian sovereignty, for more influence in the former Soviet countries and beyond, without being hindered by Western countries. That is why he now says: ‘Hoop on America and the EU’.
Do Americans Understand Putin Enough?
‘The enmity that Putin feels towards NATO is quite recent. It is sometimes difficult to understand why this is suddenly happening. When the Baltic states joined NATO in 2004, Putin barely said anything about it. In addition, only about 6 percent of Russia borders on NATO territory. And the main argument: Russia is itself a nuclear superpower! But the idea of not being powerful enough runs deep in the Russians’ self-perception.’
Putin is trying to tear the alliance apart. What are the Americans doing to prevent that?
“The Americans have maintained close contact with the European Union since the beginning of the tensions. Visits, lots of consultation. But the interests simply diverge too much. The new German government is reluctant to impose sanctions. That is not surprising, because economic sanctions hit Europe harder than the US. France has its own approach, Hungary has good relations with Russia, Poland is concerned. This is the post-Brexit world! It is difficult to constantly maintain unity. In addition, many European member states think: nice that Biden is now president and wants a good relationship with us, but what if Trump succeeds him again in 2024? They are careful with the Americans and that is completely understandable.’
In a speech last week, Joe Biden seemed willing to accept a small Russian raid. Was that a blunder?
Biden said, a small raid won’t have the same consequences. He spoke the truth. Isn’t that true? Couple; the Russians only carry out a cyber attack, then the Europeans really don’t want to punish them with heavy economic sanctions. Still, Biden shouldn’t have said it. He seemed to be sending out a signal that you can get away with this, Russia.’
Putin and Biden have known each other for a long time. Biden was Obama’s vice president when Putin occupied Crimea in 2014. What do they actually think of each other?
Putin looks at Biden and sees a weak leader with a paralyzed government who can’t get his political agenda through Congress. Biden, after they met in Geneva in June, called Putin a “worthy opponent”: there is detachment in it, but also a certain form of respect. Biden’s team wanted to build a stable, predictable relationship with Russia from the start. But they have not committed enough to this because the attention was diverted by China. Now Putin surprises them again.’