The missile that killed two people in Poland on Tuesday evening and caused international consternation was probably a missile launched by Ukrainian air defenses. That is what NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday afternoon after a NATO meeting in Brussels. NATO does not believe the impact was a deliberate Russian attack.
Read also Putin’s goal is to leave Ukraine in the cold and dark this winter
“Investigation into the incident is still ongoing […], but we have no indication that it was caused by a deliberate attack. And we have no indication that Russia is preparing an attack on NATO,” Stoltenberg said after the Polish NATO ambassador and the alliance’s top military officer, Christopher Cavoli, briefed NATO ambassadors. “Our preliminary analysis indicates that the incident was caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile launched to protect Ukraine from Russian cruise missile attacks.”
While leaders of the 20 largest economies in Bali this week condemned Putin’s war in Ukraine, Russia attacked eight Ukrainian cities with cruise missiles. “Let me be clear,” Stoltenberg continued. This is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia ultimately bears the responsibility.”
The incident contained two important lessons. The explosion at the Polish-Ukrainian border reminded everyone in the West how close that war is and underlined the importance of keeping a cool head and not losing sight of the uncertainty surrounding the ‘facts’.
War drum
Poland, which usually beats the loudest of all NATO countries when it comes to Russia, reacted with restraint on Tuesday. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki urged Poland to “keep calm” and not to speculate on the cause of the explosion that killed two men at a grain farm in the village of Przewodów. He increased the military state of readiness, but did not immediately engage NATO through Article 4, let alone Article 5, of the NATO treaty. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs spoke of a “Russian-manufactured” missile, but did not comment on the sender.
On Wednesday morning it appeared that the Polish government already knew on Tuesday evening – from its own investigation or prompted by the Americans – that the deadly projectile most likely belonged to the Ukrainian air defenses. The drop-off was therefore not from Russia or Belarus, but launched from defense. President Andrzej Duda called it an “unfortunate incident” on Wednesday.
The Kremlin immediately denied having anything to do with the projectile on Tuesday night. But Ukraine, ignorant or bent on international escalation, contradicted that. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video message: “Terror is not confined to our national borders. (…) It is necessary to act.” Foreign Minister Dmytro Koeleba tweeted that it was “untrue” and “a conspiracy theory” that the missile came from Ukraine and compared the situation to the shooting down of MH17. “No one should fall for Russian propaganda.” Ukraine has demanded to be involved in the investigation into the impact.
Our preliminary analysis indicates that the incident was caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile
Jens Stoltenberg Secretary General NATO
At first, news agencies reported that it was a Russian missile. In Bali, the G7 countries immediately met in emergency consultations led by US President Joe Biden. Prime Minister Rutte also joined in. “We are united that we need to find out exactly what happened,” he tweeted, captioning a photo of the meeting.
Unwavering support
The explosion once again underlined the great risk of NATO territory becoming directly involved in the war through mistake or design. Shortly after the invasion, everyone was aware of that risk, but in recent months it has erroneously faded into the background. The NATO countries are not only involved in the conflict through unwavering political support for Kiev and extensive arms deliveries, NATO also borders directly on the war zone.
Read also: Explosion kills in Polish border region intensifies conflict with Moscow
“It shows that the war in Ukraine, for which President Putin is responsible, is causing dangerous situations,” Stoltenberg said. NATO was also concerned after initial reports of the explosion, he said. “We are prepared to act calmly and decisively in situations like this, but also in a way that prevents escalation.”
When asked why NATO air defenses had not intercepted an incoming projectile, he replied that NATO defenses are geared to attack with missiles and drones that behave in a certain way. The missile that landed in Poland did not have the characteristics of an attack.
Poland said in the course of Tuesday evening that it was considering convening a NATO meeting under Article 4, but refrained from doing so. If a NATO member state feels threatened, it can convene an emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council, the alliance’s highest political body. The permanent representatives of the countries will then meet in Brussels. Eastern European countries took advantage of that opportunity after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
The collective defense obligation – core of NATO – is enshrined in the better-known Article 5, which was first used after the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001. After the activation of Article 5, allies can come to the aid of a country with various resources. It is an obligation that applies to every country, but in theory each country can decide for itself in what form it will provide assistance. It is therefore not the case that an attack on a NATO country immediately and automatically leads to a joint military response.