30 million chickens dead and 1500 farms with an empty stable. The 2003 bird flu outbreak was disastrous. There are also major concerns about bird flu, after the most recent outbreaks in Ysselsteyn and Deurne in Limburg. But can a disaster like 2003 happen again? According to virologist Thijs Kuiken, that chance is a lot smaller, but more measures need to be taken than now.
Kuiken is a virologist at Erasmus MC in Rotterdam and specializes in bird flu. According to him, Dutch poultry farmers and the government are much better prepared for a serious bird flu outbreak than in 2003, when the virus jumped from company to company almost unhindered and mistakes were also made during culls.
“Poultry farmers are now much more alert to animal deaths,” says Kuiken. “They are much more likely to sound the alarm if they see something. The Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority has also become much more alert and efficient. Animals on infected farms are now killed much faster, which reduces the chance of a major outbreak such as in 2003. It is stopped more quickly.”
“To my surprise, a lot still goes wrong in biosecurity.”
According to Kuiken, the concerns in 2025 are not unfounded. An outbreak may not be preventable. “To my surprise, a lot is still going wrong in the field of biosafety,” says Kuiken. “The University of Wageningen investigated seven poultry farms that previously had to deal with this bird flu virus. They hung a camera in the room where people change clothes to enter the stable. The correct measures were not taken at six companies.” For example, no thought was given to washing your hands properly or changing your shoes.
The current virus has been among animals since 2016. “This virus came here from poultry farming in China,” says Kuiken. “It spread to wild birds and then returned to poultry farming.”
“The virus has adapted.”
But the situation is now different compared to 2016. “The virus has adapted and can now spread even more easily among wild birds. So the number of infected wild birds is much higher, especially in recent months.” This also makes it easier for a larger outbreak to occur.
The virologist is also concerned about the distance between the poultry farms on the border of Limburg and North Brabant. Poultry farms are close together there. “These concerns were already there in 2003, when there was already advice to increase the distance. We advocated this again in 2021, but it is still not being followed. It is worrying to see how several companies are quickly becoming infected in the border region of North Brabant and Limburg.” For example, there was a third outbreak in the village of Ysselsteyn on Monday.
“What happens if five infected companies are added per day?”
The NVWA is much better prepared, but how great is its capacity to stop a major outbreak? And when are limits reached? According to Kuiken, the NVWA can cope with the addition of one infected company per day. “But what happens if five infected companies are added per day?”
The NVWA stated in a response that there is sufficient capacity to clear all affected companies and conduct research, but cannot say what the limit is. The NVWA can still scale up if necessary.