Like Trump’s duties risk collapse the fashion system

THEGlobal fashion is once again faced with an epochal challenge. THE New duties imposed by the United Statesknown as “Liberation Day Tariffs”, they could rewrite the rules of the sector. The president Donald Trump In fact, it has introduced mutual rates on over 180 countries, hardly affecting international supply chains. With Trump’s duties up to 54% on the China, al 46% on the Vietnam, al 29% on the Pakistan and al 20% onEuropean Union, The impact for the fashion industry, deeply globalized, is potentially enormous.

But what does it really mean for the sector? AND What will be the consequencesshortly and long term, for luxury, fast fashion and especially for Made in Italy?

The geography of fashion: a global supply chain under pressure

To understand the impact of the new American rates, you have to start from a structural data: Fashion is a highly globalized industry. Behind each garment sold in the United States, from luxury trench coat to low cost jeans, there is a long chain, fragmented and geographically focused on Asia. According to the United States Fashion Industry Association, Over 60% of the clothing imported to the USA in 2024 came from ChinaVietnam and Bangladesh, the three world powers of textile production and clothing. The decision to impose duties between 34% and 46% on these countries represents a very hard blow for the structure of the supply chain itself. Now, The brands find themselves having to rethink everything: bear the increase in costs, transfer them to consumers (with the risk of losing appeal on the price), or attempting a flash transfer of the places of production.

Easy to say, much more complex to do. Moving a production does not only mean changing country. It means renegotiating contracts, forming new suppliers, verifying the quality and other details that would require at least 4-6 months of planning, at best. Another possibility, already under discussion between some companies, is that of bring production closer to the final marketbut other difficulties emerge here. THE’American industry has lost most of its manufacturing skills over timewith only 3% of the clothing sold in the United States produced internally. Trump want to report the production within the country? But would the country be able to support it?

Will Fast Fashion collapse first?

Who risks more? Fast fashion. Based on speed, low costs and large volumes, this business model is particularly exposed to any increase in duties. With rates that in some cases touch 50% effective on the final price, The maneuver margin is drastically reduced. Brands such as Shein, H&M or Zara could be forced to review prices, logistical strategies and productive choices, while uncertainty makes it difficult to plan in the long term. The temptation to look for new productive destinations is highbut the Asian alternatives in turn present problems: Bangladesh is economically competitive, but still at the center of debates on working conditions and political instability. Vietnam, although struck by Trump’s duties, remains one of the most solid options, but with limited capacities. The most concrete risk, in a scenario like this, is that Companies find themselves forced to reduce investments in more ethical and sustainable productionsputting aside the long -term objectives conquered in recent years to cope with the urgencies of the moment.

The future of luxury. With or without the United States

Different speech for luxurywhich operates with wider margins and an audience tendentially less sensitive to the price. However, no one is immune to the shades signed by Trump: the 20% dice on the European Union and the 31% on Switzerland They directly affect fundamental segments, such as Swiss watchmaking or high -end fashion products made in Europe.

The problem, however, goes far beyond these figures. In recent years, in a context of Slowness of the question in China and in other key markets, The United States had become the main engine of post-pandic recovery of luxury. The Maison had invested in new openings outside the big cities, such as Hermès in Austin or Louis Vuitton in Indianapolis, and the data seemed to confirm a Resilience of the American consumerstill willing to spend despite the economic instability. A trajectory that, with the re -election of Trump, was thought to continue, also thanks to its image strongly linked to luxury and wealth, without predicting the drastic closure of the international markets which then took place.

So the duties of Trump affect the most reactive and promising front of the market, interrupting a trend that was giving oxygen to the entire sector, in difficulty for several years. The knots come to the comb: the Greedflation, Strategy that led the price lists to rise to an average of 54% compared to 2019, he turns on luxury companies. Now in difficulty like the pandemic or the crisis of 2018.

Made in Italy: between risk and opportunities

Italy looks with concern what happens. Trump’s duties on the European Union directly affect the sector of Italian luxuryalways strong exporter to the United States. Sectors such as the leather goods, the footwear, there tailoring High -end and textile could be slowed down, especially if American customers decide to contain expenditure.

But if on the one hand the panorama is critical, on the other A window of opportunities could open For Made in Italy, which has its main assets in quality, creativity and traceability. In a panorama where Asian supply chain are under pressure and trust in large production hubs are questioned, the Italian industry can strengthen itself by exploiting excellence and reliability. Because this happens, however,, you need a change of pace: investments in innovation, sustainability and solid support from the institutions.

What happens now?

Nobody has the exact answer. The new rates could be a negotiating strategy destined to return, or the beginning of a structural redefinition of global commercial relations. In the meantime, Fashion finds itself dealing with a new reality: uncertainty as constant and the need to rethink production. The most agile companies, those capable of adapting, diversifying, integrating vertically or repositioning the offer, may come out strengthened. But for many others, above all small or emergingthe pressure on margins, logistics and prices risks becoming unsustainable.

In an interconnected system, where a t-shirt is designed in Milan, produced by Dacca and sold in New York, How sustainable, and desirable is a closing policy?

Fashion, by its nature, lives on exchangecontamination and movement. The political choices that limit its breath risk compromising its essence, as well as existence.

I woman © RESERVED REPRODUCTION