Five games before the end of the season, it is as good as certain: Darmstadt 98, 1. FC Heidenheim and HSV will make up the promotion places among themselves. According to the data, Hamburger SV is the best of the three teams, but needs at least one blunder of the competitors.
With the 4:3 victory in the Hamburg derby against FC St. Pauli, Tim Walter’s team celebrated an extremely important victory. The game could have ended very differently, and then HSV would suddenly have had to worry about third place. Now Walter and Co. are nine points ahead of their pursuers. In addition, only one point behind second-placed Heidenheim and five behind leaders Darmstadt.
“We really have something to do, so we are well advised to continue working with concentration.”
— HSV captain Sebastian Schonlau
Nobody wants to be relegated: HSV only lost last year in the duels with the Bundesliga-16. Hertha BSC missed promotion. Heidenheim lost out to Werder Bremen in 2020.
The Hamburgers have also missed out on pushing their competitors in the direct duels. In the second half of the season there was a draw in Heidenheim (3:3) and in Darmstadt (1:1). Curious: If you form a table exclusively from the games of the trio against each other, there is a tie on points. HSV and Heidenheim even have the same goal difference at 6:6.
The direct duels between HSV, Darmstadt and Heidenheim
Results:
HSV – Heidenheim 1: 0 (3rd matchday)
HSV – Darmstadt 1: 2 (5th matchday)
Darmstadt – Heidenheim 2: 2 (6th matchday)
Heidenheim – HSV 3: 3 (20th matchday)
Darmstadt – HSV 1: 1 (22nd matchday)
Heidenheim – Darmstadt 1: 0 (23rd matchday)
Tabel:
1. HSV 6:6 goals, 5 points
Heidenheim 6:6 goals, 5 points
3. Darmstadt 5:5 goals, 5 points
And there is another special feature in this tight promotion race: Hamburg and FCH have exactly the same opponents in the final spurt of the season with Magdeburg, Paderborn, Regensburg, Fürth and Sandhausen. Darmstadt’s remaining program seems a bit more difficult.
HSV coach Walter annoyed the many goals conceded
“We still have five games in which we have to give everything,” demanded HSV sports director Jonas Boldt. Interestingly, a look at the data from GSN shows that HSV has actually played best so far. With a performance score of 56.86, the North Germans are just as ahead as with 1.98 expected goals and 1.61 expected points (best value in the league).
But it is also true that Walter’s men allow most of their opponent’s shots on goal (11.92 per 90 minutes) and the opponents also have the highest expected goals value (1.43). It’s no coincidence that HSV have already conceded 38 goals – a whopping 14 more than leaders Darmstadt. This flood of goals has also meant that the goal difference speaks against Hamburg (20), especially compared to Heidenheim (+28).
“We should never give away the goals we conceded like that,” said Walter recently after the three St. Pauli goals. Captain Sebastian Schonlau said: “We have a lot to do, so we are well advised to continue working with concentration.”
Actually got off well
When comparing the “expected data” with the real results, it becomes clear that HSV did not concede a surprising number of goals. Again and again goals are conceded after individual mistakes. Walter recently explained that his team had the misfortune that the opponents often punished these mistakes directly with goals. The coach’s risky tactics resulted in 1.31 goals conceded per game, but even 1.43 were expected. So Hamburg got off well.
Heidenheim: Outperform small service and best
However, this also applies to the competition. Heidenheim, for example, shows a blatant over-performance. 1.42 Expected Goals stands at 2.03 goals per game, the best tally of any club in the league. For comparison: HSV scores exactly two goals, but with 1.98 expected goals they are statistically really that good.
The “expected goals” model
“Expected goals” are “expected goals” and are calculated using a data model that includes a variety of factors – including where on the pitch the goal was scored, what the angle was to the goal and how many opponents were still between the ball and the gate stood. Each scoring opportunity is given a value between 0 and 1 to determine the probability of the ball landing in the goal from that point. “Expected goals” values are so more meaningful than the normal goal shot statistics, which treats all goals the same. GSN evaluated more than 3 million goals for the calculation.
The Heidenheimers make a lot of their opportunities – with 35.69 percent they have by far the best conversion of chances. And the Ostalb team is extremely hard-working: At 120.87 kilometers per game, coach Frank Schmidt’s team runs six and a half kilometers more than Hamburg and almost nine more than Darmstadt. With 239 sprints and 746 high-intensity runs, the Swabians also clearly outperform their direct competitors. If someone calls the success of the FCH lucky, then it’s the luck of the capable.
“The nice thing is that we have everything in our own hands. That goes until the last matchday.”
— Heidenheim’s top scorer Tim Kleindienst
The Heidenheim team owe their success not least to Tim Kleindienst. The center forward, who has already gained Bundesliga experience in Freiburg and is now the top scorer in the second division with 22 goals this season, is the key player. The 27-year-old symbolizes Heidenheim’s qualities, not only because of his goal threat, but also because of his tackling skills, offensive space finding and tactical behavior. His congenial offensive partner is Jan-Niklas Beste. The 24-year-old was once unable to assert himself in either Dortmund or Bremen. With eleven assists, he is now the best assist provider in the league and forms a first-class axis with Kleindienst, Adrian Beck and Patrick Mainka.
HSV axis has become brittle
At HSV, the axis of success has become a bit brittle. Robert Glatzel has only scored four goals in ten games since the beginning of February – two of them in the 4-2 defeat at Karlsruher SC. In North Baden, HSV conceded not only four goals but also one of their five dismissals. Walter’s team, who saw a red card himself at KSC, did not win any of the outnumbered games (three defeats, one draw). For comparison: Heidenheim and Darmstadt only had to accept two dismissals.
HSV playmaker Ludovit Reis has lost consistency in his performances since the bankruptcy in Karlsruhe. In Kaiserslautern (0:2), the Dutchman, who was celebrated as the “best player in the league” in the Volksparkstadion, made two bad mistakes that led to the two goals conceded. The hope remains that Sebastian Schonlau and Moritz Heyer, both of whom have been sorely missed recently, will be able to restore order on the pitch when they return.
Darmstadt shows it: The defense decides about the title
While the other two clubs rely on the offensive card, the wisdom that the defensive wins championships could once again come true in Darmstadt. 24 goals against in 29 games are outstanding. It is not surprising that with central defender Patric Pfeiffer and right-back Matthias Bader, who are the best players in the league in their respective positions, as well as Christoph Zimmermann, the majority of top performers play in the Lilies’ defence.
“Everyone has gone beyond the pain threshold. I’m massively proud.”
— Darmstadt coach Torsten Lieberknecht
There is also a lot of morale: Coach Torsten Lieberknecht’s team has already scored 15 points after falling behind. So also last time in the 2:1 against the KSC. “It wasn’t a glamorous win, but that doesn’t matter,” said midfielder Fabian Schnellhardt. Lieberknecht himself said: “It was a passionate defense until the end. Everyone went beyond the pain threshold. I’m massively proud.” With a calculated promotion probability of 90 percent, it seems that the table leaders can hardly be denied a return to the Bundesliga.
The HSV team must follow the trainer’s words with deeds
In order to make something out of the role of the pursuer, the Hamburgers have to improve compared to the first half of the season – and at the same time hope for blunders from the competition. From the last five games in 2022, HSV won three, but suffered two defeats. Darmstadt remained undefeated on eleven points. Heidenheim even recorded 13 points.
Walter explains like a prayer wheel that he knows that HSV will rise – even if it’s about the relegation. His players go into the last five games of the season optimistically – and “with a very good feeling”, as Jonas David added. The derby victory gave “another boost in self-confidence”. What that’s worth has to be proven on Saturday (1 p.m., in the NDR Livecenter) in the game at Christian Titz’s Magdeburgers. In the first leg, Hamburg suffered a bitter 3-2 defeat against their ex-coach.
This topic in the program:
The NDR 2 Bundesliga show | 04/29/2023 | 13:00 ‘O clock
