Status: 05/17/2022 09:00 a.m
HSV is playing in the relegation against Hertha BSC for its return to the Bundesliga. Who has the better chance? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the opponents? The duel in the data and tactics check.
Drama offers the relegation abound. Who would know that better than the fans of Hamburger SV and Hertha BSC? In 2014 and 2015, the North Germans saved themselves from being relegated to the Bundesliga in the two play-offs, while the Berliners lost in 2012 under coach Otto Rehhagel in the legendary duels against Fortuna Düsseldorf.
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Now HSV, as a second division team, wants to return to the top flight on Thursday and Monday (both 8.30 p.m./in the NDR Livecenter) against the “Old Lady”.
HSV legend Magath on the Berlin coaching bench
Against Hertha, which is coached by HSV legend Felix Magath and which is currently on the worst path to going the Hamburg way: as a club that has many opportunities and is massively supported financially by an investor, to be relegated to the second division.
There is no doubt that the pressure on the Berliners is greater. The psychological moment also speaks for the North Germans, who have secured third place through a winning streak. However, it is also clear that a Bundesliga team is generally better staffed than a second division team and therefore different also mostly prevailed in the playoffs.
Glatzel: “We can do it”
HSV striker Robert Glatzel sums up the starting position: “Our chances in the relegation are there, but Hertha is the Bundesliga team and has a lot of individual quality. We can still do it.”
What do the people of Hamburg have to do to assert themselves? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the opponents? We take a look at the data.
The Hertha style should suit HSV
Basically it can be said: The Berliners are an opponent who should suit HSV, at least more than VfB Stuttgart. Because Hertha BSC has weaknesses in areas where coach Tim Walter’s team has its strengths.
Above all, the tactical orientation of the Magath team suits the second division. The most effective remedy against HSV is early pressing, as Hansa Rostock clearly demonstrated in the first half on Sunday.
On the one hand, this prevents the build-up of play and, on the other hand, often leads to ball wins and goal chances against the technically not outstanding defenders.
However, when it comes to pressing, the Berliners are the worst team in the Bundesliga. On average, they win the ball in the opposing half just 8.09 times per game.
In any case, Hertha acts like a classic outsider. The initiative is left to the opponent, even more so under Magath than under his predecessors, which is also clearly expressed in the numbers: In all parameters that stand for creativity (e.g. shots on goal, own actions, possession of the ball), the capital city occupies one in the Bundesliga comparison the last places.
After all, the duel values are right: 55.56 percent of defensive duels won mean sixth place in the league ranking.
Can the Walter-Elf keep their concept?
HSV is completely different: He wants to dominate, have the ball and then put Glatzel in the limelight via the outside centre-forward. This could also work well in the relegation, since Hertha has weaknesses on the flanks.
The distribution of roles should be interesting to watch anyway: will Hamburg be able to keep their style against Hertha as a team that is lower in their class? Or will Magath change the basic orientation of his team and let them act much more offensively? That’s not very likely. Despite all the successes that Magath has celebrated: As a coach, he was never a savvy tactician.
In addition, it is questionable whether a battered team can (and should) change its style almost completely within a few days. It is more likely that the Berliners will try to be compact and set “pinpricks” – preferably with long balls in the direction of the center forward.
standards for Berlin a chance?
There is definitely a chance here: The HSV defense is not always up to par in such situations. Set-pieces should also play an important role in Magath’s plan, as his eleven are relatively often dangerous after free-kicks – and throw-ins. That may not be a particularly innovative approach. But in the relegation applies even more than usual: only the result counts.
Relegation always good for a drama
And that could be positive for HSV – at least that’s the theory. But the duels for promotion and relegation have always developed a very special dynamic, in which all theory is often gray and nerves of steel and a little luck are what counts. See Hertha BSC – Düsseldorf 2012, see HSV – Fürth 2014, see HSV – KSC 2015. To be continued: on Thursday and Monday.
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