The gold flight could soon be over. The US Großbank Citi expects a strong price decline in the coming months.
• Gold price near all -time high – but Citi sees the end of the rally
• Analysts expect a decline to $ 2,500 to $ 2,700 per ounce
• Declining crisis mood, interest rate cuts, political stabilization
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Gold almost on the record – but the warning comes at the wrong time
The gold price is just below the previous all -time high. The demand is historically high, according to Citi, 0.5 percent of global GDP is currently flowing into the precious metal, a level that has not existed in fifty years. But this is exactly where the large bank sees a warning signal: the rally is covered, the markets overheat, quotes “Marketwatch” the experts.
Pandemic, inflation, war: the perfect breeding ground for gold
The gold price boom was driven by several factors. Pandemic, uncertainty about monetary stability, geopolitical tensions and increasing jewelry demand – especially from China and India – had lifted the price. Central banks also expanded their gold reserves worldwide. These factors looked like a turbo that pushed the price far beyond the classic production costs. Even high-priced producers can currently work with full margin, according to the Citi experts.
Trump factor, economic hope and the end of the panic
However, the US bank draws a different picture for the upcoming quarters. The analysts expect the demand for gold to decrease noticeably from the end of 2025. The reasons include the growing probability of an economic -friendly environment in the United States through new trade contracts and tax policy impulses under President Donald Trump. Relaxation of global risk perception would reduce the need for “safe ports” such as gold.
Interest turning presses the price
Another central factor is the monetary phrase, according to Citi. From 2026, the FED is likely to move away from its restrictive course and pass to a more neutral attitude. That would support global growth and at the same time reduce the attractiveness of gold. Citi calculates: An interest step of 100 basis points down would reduce the gold price by $ 200 per ounce.
Other banks contradict – gold to $ 4,000?
While Citi predicts a decline from $ 2,500 to $ 2,700 per ounce, other institutes are far from seeing the market. According to Reuters, the Bank of America considers an increase to $ 4,000, based on structural factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties and a gradual erosion of the US dollar as a world lead.
Editor finance.net
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