It appears to be a major change in Israeli strategy. Until now, Israel’s position has been to invade the city of Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, to kill Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif. Without such an invasion, Israel could not win the war, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
But on the night from Sunday to Monday, the announced invasion of Rafah was suddenly made conditional. Benny Gantz, opposition leader and member of the war cabinet, called on Hamas to release the approximately 100 remaining hostages before the start of Ramadan, around March 11. If it doesn’t, Israel will invade Rafah.
Confusion everywhere: will an invasion come anyway, or can it still be averted? The answer to that question is of vital importance to many hundreds of thousands of people. Following continued Israeli attacks in the rest of the Gaza Strip, an estimated 1.4 million Palestinian displaced persons have gathered in Rafah, a city the size of Eindhoven; it is also called the most densely populated part of the world at the moment. International organizations and Israel’s allies have widely described a ground invasion last week as disastrous.
Whether Gantz’s words really indicate a change in strategy, the American-Israeli analyst would say Mairav Zonszein from the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group don’t want to claim. “That would mean that Israel has a strategy at all. I’m not so sure about that. There is a lot of chaos in the Israeli government, a lot of different views. And there is general suspicion about Netanyahu’s motives.”
But Gantz doesn’t just say this, does he?
“What seems more likely to me is that there is something other than a change in strategy behind this ultimatum to Hamas. Look, Rafah’s ground invasion can never happen in a few weeks. Because Israel must somehow ensure that the more than one and a half million people now in Rafah have the opportunity to evacuate. That may not be a great evacuation, but at least Israel can say it did its best. In addition, numerous reservists still have to be mobilized to carry out the invasion.”
So Israel is mainly buying time with this ultimatum?
“Beats. Threatening to invade means keeping the pressure on the ceasefire negotiations. And the ultimatum allows Netanyahu to blame Hamas if they don’t comply.”
Is it also a factor that Israeli society puts a lot of pressure on the government to free the hostages?
“It is true that the families of the hostages are exerting pressure, and the campaign for release in the public discourse and in the media is quite intense. Netanyahu, of course, takes that into account. On the other hand, there is enormous support in Israeli society for the complete defeat of Hamas. Opinion polls show that a majority of Israelis believe that victory over Hamas is more important than the fate of the hostages. But because that total victory could take years, the government can of course continue to push for a short-term victory in the meantime: the release of hostages.”
Do you think it is likely that Hamas will adhere to the ultimatum?
“No. I fear that the Israeli public will have to get used to the fact that the hostages are not coming back.”
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu has agreed to a proposal by ultra-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to limit the number of Palestinians allowed into the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif in occupied Eastern Asia during Ramadan. Jerusalem. And while Hamas has called its October 7 attack the ‘Al-Aqsa storm’ – an attack out of anger at Israeli interference in their religious affairs. What kind of Ramadan are you expecting?
“In other years, Ramadan in Israel and Palestine is already a tense situation. During Ramadan last year, well before the war, several violent confrontations took place between the Israeli authorities and Palestinians on the Temple Mount, which is also holy for religious Jews. I fear that Israel will use Ramadan this year to escalate. These kinds of restrictions on holy places add fuel to the fire.”
Can Israel’s allies do anything to calm emotions?
“So far, the United States has stuck to rhetoric, without putting serious pressure on Israel. The US is also not against an invasion of Rafah, they only attach humanitarian conditions to it. This offers Israel considerable policy space. And you see that happening: Netanyahu then announces, for example, that he is allowing some aid supplies and fuel into Gaza. If necessary, he knows how to visually comply with American demands. I say optically, because it is never enough to really alleviate the humanitarian need.”
All in all, do you think Israel will eventually invade Rafah?
“That seems inevitable to me. Israel will not end the war without taking Rafah. The entire approach is aimed at destroying Hamas, eliminating its leadership, demolishing its infrastructure. Unless something very big suddenly changes, for example that Hamas suddenly releases all the hostages, I cannot see a scenario in which Rafah is spared.”
Also read
this photo series about the state of emergency in Rafah