If I were a member of GroenLinks and/or PvdA, I would lose heart in the voters’ shoes. Because the outcome of the elections in November is actually already certain now that Pieter Omtzigt has started a new party. We don’t need Maurice de Hond to predict the following.
The VVD and New Social Contract (awkward name by the way) will win about 25 seats each; Whoever becomes the biggest doesn’t matter right now. This means that, together with BBB, they can already approach a parliamentary majority. If that doesn’t work, they’ll find a few trailers.
Whoever they won’t ask for that, those are PvdA/GroenLinks and D66. Frans Timmermans can achieve considerable electoral success, but he will nevertheless have to go to the opposition benches.
Now that I’m recklessly on a roll, I’ll just reveal the name of the new prime minister right away: Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius. Why? Because Omtzigt and Caroline van der Plas do not consider themselves suitable for that job. Omtzigt because he fears a new burnout, Van der Plas because she – I quote herself – does not want to wear high heels. Yesilgöz wants nothing more than to become prime minister. If she manages to do that, we will see Geert Wilders smearing syrup on the Prime Minister of the Netherlands; I foresee some startling chemistry between the two. Yesilgöz’s statement that she does not exclude the PVV is only the first signal.
I also suspect that the VVD will soon become the largest party again. It is a sign of weakness that the leaders of BBB and New Social Contract do not want to become prime minister themselves. The other parties in the election debates can take maximum advantage of this. “Mr. Omtzigt, do you already know who will be your most important face in the new government – and can we finally know that too?” “Mrs Van der Plas, have you already found someone for our new government who is willing to wear high heels?”
In those debates, all arrows will be aimed mainly at Omtzigt. He is a greater threat to the other parties than Van der Plas, because he has more political experience and knowledge of the dossier.
His political past is not wrinkle-free. As spokesman for the CDA, he played a strange role in the aftermath of MH17. His supporters would rather not be reminded of this, but Omtzigt himself admitted that he acted “carelessly” at a certain point in this. But how careless exactly – and why? And why, as Tom-Jan Meeus pointed out in his captivating reconstruction of the cowardly Western response to the Russian conquest of Crimea, did he receive the first copy of a book full of half-wit pro-Russian conspiracy theories by a far-right author?
Omtzigt sometimes shows a healthy distrust of the powerful, but he can also turn into a kind of paranoia, as in the case of Joris Demmink, the former top official of the Justice Department, who was completely wrongly accused of pedophilia by unsavory conspiracy theorists. Omtzigt fueled that witch hunt with parliamentary questions.
As leader of a large group, Omtzigt will soon have a position of power in parliament. Then he will be able to demonstrate that power does not necessarily corrupt.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper on August 23, 2023.