Report: “Ukraine is losing 10,000 drones a month” | War Ukraine and Russia

The numbers – which amount to more than 300 drones per day – were compiled from extensive interviews with three Ukrainian officers. In the report of the British think tank it is not specified which models are involved or in what proportion they are being shot down by the Russians. But according to James Patton Rogers, professor of war studies at the University of Southern Denmark and drone expert, the majority of lost drones are relatively cheap, small commercial units used for surveillance, he tells Business Insider. ‘.

The estimates point to the unprecedented scale of UAV use in Ukraine, he says. It is “one of the first drone versus drone conflicts in the world”.

Patton Rogers explains that while the numbers are likely overstated, they nevertheless underscore just how effective Russian electronic warfare has become in countering the Ukrainian military’s extensive use of drones.

Ukrainian drone operators at the front have previously told the British newspaper ‘The Guardian’ that one of the most popular models – the DJI commercial drone – was rapidly losing its effectiveness. An advanced electronic warfare system is therefore one of Russia’s strongest points, the RUSI researchers agree. Ukraine “has the initiative”, but the Russian army should certainly not be written off, conclude the military experts of the British think tank.

Nevertheless, Ukraine is “developing its own resilient drone systems to fill this capacity gap,” says Professor Patton Rogers.

The figure of 10,000 drones per month seems incredibly high and therefore provokes comment. One of the report’s authors, Dr. Jack Watling, has since responded extensively on Twitter following the publication of the report on May 19. He notes that the front runs for 1,200 kilometers and drones are used by every Ukrainian unit. For the most part, these are indeed smaller commercial drones from the company DJI.

“So how sure am I of the 10,000 per month number? As an exact number, no. The actual total varies from month to month and day to day and is not accurately tracked. But consumption is certainly very high,” writes Watling.

“So if the number isn’t exact – all neatly rounded numbers are suspect – why use that number at all? Firstly, because that is the figure we got from the Ukrainian General Staff and from the department that has the best data. Secondly, it is important to put a figure on consumption in order to make a policy-relevant point.”

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Drone expert and author David Hambling also suspects that the estimate of a loss of 10,000 drones per day may be a bit on the high side, but he does not rule out the possibility that it can also be a reliable figure. After all, an important feature of small drones is that they are extremely affordable compared to military hardware, he responds to the ‘Forbes’ website.

“10,000 DJI drones at an average cost of about $1,000 (927 euros) equates to a total amount of $10 million (over 9 million euros),” Hambling calculates. “Last week, Russia lost a Su-34 bomber, costing just over $40 million (37 million euros). Ukraine seems to be able to acquire masses of DJI drones quite easily, but Russia is struggling to build even small numbers of military aircraft,” he notes.

As Watling, co-author of the RUSI study, puts it himself: “UAVs are consumed very quickly as are munitions. You need them in your army and they must be cheap.”