Where hasn’t Volodymyr Zelensky been yet? In recent weeks, the Ukrainian president has already visited a whole host of European countries, including the Netherlands. On Friday there was a surprise visit to Saudi Arabia, at an Arab League summit in Jeddah. And on Sunday, Zelensky in Hiroshima – symbolism is never far away from him – can remind the G7 countries of the horrors of war.
The dizzying diplomatic offensive exudes everything from a mission that must not fail. Now there is still plenty of Western support for the Ukrainian cause, but will it remain so? Much depends on the Ukrainian counter-offensive. If that does not turn the war around enough, or worse: if it fails, the enthusiasm to supply even more weapons to Ukraine is expected to decrease. And so this may be Zelensky’s last chance to extract maximum commitments from his allies.
At the G-7 summit in Japan, he will underline that Ukraine will also need F-16 fighter jets next year to effectively put a stop to Russian aggression.
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For its Western allies, the delivery of F-16s represents the last major step in arms support. Much more is not really imaginable. Earlier this month, the UK cleared the way for what had been difficult to discuss until then: the delivery of cruise missiles with a range of more than 250 kilometers, which can also hit targets deep in occupied Crimea. The F-16s would come too late for the counter-offensive, the first signs of which are already visible. But Zelensky realizes that he will have to lobby hard for it now if he wants to have the fighter planes from next winter. A first step has been taken: President Biden gave the green light at the G-7 on Friday for the training of pilots from Ukraine to fly F-16s.
Static combat
Despite the massive arms support, the government in Kyiv knows that Western aid is not infinite. The G7 leaders spoke on Friday a statement once again that their support for Ukraine ‘will not give way’. But if the results of the counter-offensive are disappointing, Kyiv has no guarantees that the allies will patiently continue to supply billions in military equipment. After two successful Ukrainian counter-offensives last fall, in Kharkiv and Kherson, the war has turned into a grueling but static battle in which the front lines have hardly changed.
The pressure on Ukraine to turn the tide in the war before the end of the year is therefore enormous. “We have the task of maintaining the momentum of international support for Ukraine,” Zelensky said in his daily speech to his country. “I am confident that we will accomplish that task.”
But Washington, among others, is considering the possibility that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will turn into a “frozen conflict” that could last for years or even decades. According to Politics The White House is already cautiously discussing the possibility that neither Moscow nor Kyiv will ever resign itself to military defeat, and that the conflict will never end. That scenario would be seen as increasingly realistic within the US administration due to a growing sense that the counter-offensive will not be enough to deal a final blow to Russia. This could create a scenario in Ukraine similar to the Korean Peninsula, or in Kashmir, where two countries remain de facto at war for decades because they do not agree on state borders.
Despite huge support, Kyiv knows that Western aid is not infinite
The approaching election season in the US is only adding to the pressure on Kyiv. More power for the Republicans in Congress, or a return of Donald Trump to the White House, could have far-reaching consequences for support for Ukraine or relations between the White House and the Kremlin. Thursday wrote Financial Times that there are also concerns about this in European capitals. Anonymous European government sources told the British newspaper that the current level of military support “cannot be maintained forever”. Another year at the most, maybe two years, but no longer. The upcoming spring offensive may well be the last chance to get Russian troops out of Ukraine. Zelensky wants to make sure Ukraine gets every tank and missile it needs to push back the Russians.
On the battlefield itself, the operations that the Ukrainian army command has devised are waiting. In recent weeks, smaller operations have already taken place in numerous places along the thousand-kilometer long front line. This is done not only to test where the weak spots in the Russian positions are, but also to keep Russian troops in uncertainty about where the offensive will be launched.
Supply route to Crimea
Most military analysts still assume that the Ukrainian army will try to break through enemy positions in the south, towards Melitopol, to cut the Russian supply route to Crimea. But it is precisely in that area that the Russian defense lines are probably the strongest.
The past few weeks showed how both armies are preparing. By firing dozens of cruise missiles and drones, Russia is trying to thwart Ukrainian preparations for the counterattack, including by attacking ammunition depots and troop concentrations.
Read also: How all the ‘red lines’ around the war in Ukraine are slowly shifting
Ukrainian forces, in turn, are believed to be responsible for attacks on oil depots and infrastructure such as railways, such as at Simferopol in Crimea on Thursday.
Meanwhile, there has been movement at Bachmoet, the virtually destroyed city in the Donbas that has been under Russian fire since August. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a leading Washington think tank, said Thursday in his daily war report that the Ukrainian army “tactically took the initiative” in the battle for Bachmut. In counter-attacks, the Ukrainians would have recaptured territory from the Russian army. On the western side of Bachmut, Ukrainian troops are said to have broken through Russian defense lines both to the north and to the south. “It’s a war of position,” Ukrainian army spokesman Serhi Cherevaty said Thursday, „but in general we took the initiative on the enemy. They are forced to react to our actions.”
A version of this article also appeared in the May 20, 2023 newspaper.