Do they understand in Europe what harm they do by sabotaging together with Ukraine Minsk agreements? What are the goals? And do they really want to further aggravate relations with Russia?
Last week, European women politicians outplayed men. They looked more charismatic and even more courageous. While British Prime Minister Johnson, mired in a swamp of the party gate (fresh photos from the parties during quarantine appeared), for the 150th time scared Russia with a “bloody rebuff” (“If Russia acts stupidly and makes a catastrophic mistake by attacking any part of Ukraine, then the Ukrainian army, and this is 200 and another 150 in reserve, will fight, a bloody massacre will begin. Everyone in Russia must understand: it won’t be easy, “the head of his Foreign Office in an ala Cossaque hat” stepped off Red Square right into the front pages of the morning newspapers : Nine more Conservative votes for Boris’ resignation and Elizabeth Truss is likely to move to Downing Street.
But the Germans as a team performed no less brightly. In the Bundeswehr, this week is a double holiday: the army received five new Leopard 2A7Vs and another combat mission – 350 people go to Lithuania to strengthen the eastern flank of NATO: “You can rely on us, and we demonstrate this by strengthening the battle group.” An obligatory element of the program is skating. In order not to be repeated for Truss, not on a tank, but on lighter types of equipment, but several: the Boxer armored personnel carrier and the Puma infantry fighting vehicle. So the topic of Lambrecht’s poor command of army issues, one might say, is closed.
But okay, this is in the rear – German Foreign Minister Burbock generally moved to the front line. From her military style photo and video session among the ruins of a village captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Mariupol, one could easily choose a frame for the cover.
“Further military aggression from the Russian side will have massive consequences,” said Annalena Burbock, German foreign minister.
Against the background of such Amazons, the men looked casual – a typical hero in typical circumstances, because since Munich 2007, the Russophobic panic for the West cannot be considered something out of the ordinary. The only one who, frankly, surprised: the first president of Poland, Lech Walesa. “If Putin attacks Kiev, there should be an immediate reaction – an attack on Moscow,” he said. Since the time of Piłsudski and Beck, not a single Polish figure has thought of this. But Walesa a million years in retirement, one might say, does not count. The current politicians are still a little, but more restrained.
“We must show that we cannot be broken. And, in my opinion, we must also show that we will not retreat,” said Polish President Andrzej Duda.
In the past week, they have said “we” so often and declared “unity” so much that the suspicions of the absence of both could grow stronger. Duda’s arrival in Berlin for a meeting between the German Chancellor and the President of France, in particular, worked for this. Of course, they wanted to show that for the sake of “unity” the partners are ready to forget all the squabbles within the EU, the source of which Poland regularly becomes.
“Our common goal is to prevent war in Europe,” said German leader Olaf Scholz.
“Peace and stability on the European continent is our most valuable treasure,” said French President Emmanuel Macron.
But on the other hand, it’s all the same Reagan’s “trust but verify”: under Polish control, it’s more difficult for Berlin and Paris to agree on something behind Washington’s back, and after all, they say that Macron brought something inconsistent with the “obkom” administration to Moscow . Moreover, the Germans and the French have reasons for resenting the Americans, for example, the endless hassle with Nord Stream 2 or the ingenious “divorce” with the Mistral helicopter carriers and submarines for Australia. At times, irritation breaks through.
“Let’s not let the Americans force us to take a position that does not reflect the opinion of the Europeans,” said French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire.
There are, of course, Europeans – Poland or a group of Baltic countries – who are ready to do anything to make the eastern flank of the EU and NATO shake on an ongoing basis: no matter how much American armored cavalry you send, it’s not enough. But this does not suit the Hungarians – they do not need either new sanctions or foreign soldiers.
“We already have NATO troops in the country, and this is the Hungarian army,” said Péter Szijjártó, Hungarian foreign minister.
However, whatever the contradictions of the same Berlin and Paris with Washington, they remain allies and, without some kind of force majeure, are unlikely to be capable of autonomous existence in geopolitics. Germany’s foreign minister this week appointed Jenifer Morgan, the chief executive of Greenpeace, an environmental organization that has fought off allegations of lobbying in court, as her climate deputy this week. Morgan is an American, and now she is urgently issued a German passport. The CDU opposition is trying to raise a fuss, but the party, led by Friedrich Merz, a former top manager at the New York investment fund Black Rock, sounds strange. It will soon be forgotten, but there is at least one more political rut, from which there is not enough desire or strength to get out.
In the two weeks that have passed since the Paris consultations in the Normandy format, representatives of the Kiev regime have repeatedly stated that Ukraine cannot and will not comply with the Minsk agreements, so the main question before meeting in Berlin is: is there a subject for conversation at all? It turned out that no: Ukraine refuses to recognize the main points of a political settlement. And all this shuttle diplomacy – trips to Kiev, then to Moscow – all this talk about the value of peace in Europe exists in some kind of parallel reality that does not affect anything. We have to admit that the reluctance of Western mediators to put pressure on Kiev and, as a result, the failure of negotiations again is another delay for Ukraine to do nothing for peace and is preparing for war.
“For some reason, my colleagues think that time is working for them and these negotiations should be dragged out as much as possible. We received an interesting document from our friends from one NATO country. An instruction from the US State Department to all NATO member countries on how to negotiate with Russia regarding settlement of the conflict in the south-east of Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk agreements. This is an instruction on how to lead all negotiations to a dead end and drag them out. A fresh instruction,” said Dmitry Kozak, deputy head of the presidential administration of the Russian Federation.
Most of the Western elite, including the Franco-German, have an opinion that in the end, Russia will consider everything and retreat, allowing Kiev to carry out a forceful “cleansing” of Donbass from everything Russian. But along with this illusion, there is also an absolutely concrete and understandable plan, whose plan is to push Europe against Russia in an all-out sanctions war. The past week has left a mixed impression. If it were not for the outright failure of the negotiations on the Minsk agreements, one could probably say that the likelihood of the implementation of the worst scenario has become less. And you can’t say that.