The US midterm elections in 2026 could influence individual stocks and sectors in advance. The focus is on possible winners from the defense, healthcare and financial sectors.
• Change of power in Congress could shift political priorities
• For investors, inflation, growth and geopolitics remain more important than the election outcome
• Sectors such as defense, healthcare and finance could be particularly in focus in the midterms
Although the US midterm elections will not take place until November 2026, it might be worth taking a look now at some stocks that are likely to benefit from the expected political changes. As MarketBeat reports, citing research from S&P Dow Jones Indices, the cross-sector impact in congressional election months was above average for mid-sized and small companies 83 percent of the time – compared to just 67 percent in presidential election years.
A possible change of power in Congress could significantly shift political priorities, while existing policies are likely to continue if the majority remains unchanged, explains MarketBeat.
However, economic factors often have a stronger impact than election results: issues such as inflation, economic growth and geopolitical tensions are likely to become more of a focus for investors again due to the upcoming midterm elections, it continues.
Defense: Lockheed Martin and RTX in focus
Regardless of existing geopolitical conflicts, according to MarketBeat, there are many signs that defense spending will continue to rise. Investors have often viewed Lockheed Martin and RTX as either-or investments, but given the trend toward autonomous systems and AI-based warfare, both companies could benefit, they say. This is also supported by the 2026 defense budget, which underlines the growing importance of these technologies with more than 13 billion US dollars for autonomy and AI projects.
Lockheed Martin specializes in defense technologies and develops solutions to complex security challenges. It also drives scientific innovations. The US aerospace and defense group RTX says it develops technologies for civil and military aviation as well as for modern defense systems and security solutions. Both companies also rely on AI.
According to MarketBeat, existing defense contracts generally remain in place regardless of the election outcome: What is important is not so much which company is leading the technological transformation, but rather what market share it can secure.
This is how stocks move
In the past six months, which were marked by military conflicts, Lockheed Martin shares rose by more than 12 percent – over the past twelve months, this represents an increase of around 15 percent (as of June 10, 2026). RTX shares recorded a moderate increase of around 1.5 percent in the last six months, while they increased by around 25 percent in a twelve-month comparison (as of June 10, 2026).
The healthcare sector could have catch-up potential
Healthcare is one of the most politically sensitive areas in the US: This uncertainty could create opportunities for broad-based investments like the Health Care Select SPDR Fund, according to MarketBeat. Between 1994 and 2024, the healthcare sector performed significantly better on average than the S&P 500 in midterm election years. However, it is currently lagging behind this development and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund has also fallen since the beginning of the year and is burdened by uncertainties in drug prices and weaker insurance results. Nevertheless, it goes on to say that demographic change and its consequences speak for the sector in the long term.
Financial assets between interest rate policy and regulation
Interest rate developments are likely to remain a central issue until the midterm elections: the CME FedWatch Tool currently sees the likelihood of one Interest rate increase in October at around 40 percent (as of June 10, 2026), supporting interest in the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund. Banks benefit from rising interest rates, but it is the interest rate difference that is crucial. A normalized U.S. yield curve could support regional institutions’ margins, while AI and digital assets offer additional efficiency and yield opportunities, MarketBeat said.
With a view to the midterm elections, regulation could also become more important than interest rates: instead of further deregulation, stricter rules could come into focus again in the event of a change of power, it is said.
Svenja Polonyi, editorial team at finanzen.net
This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. finanzen.net GmbH excludes any claims for recourse.
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