Focus on the Middle East crisis – Do we have to get used to oil prices of $100?

• Experts warn of permanently higher oil prices
• Infrastructure severely damaged
• Transport routes also disrupted

Although reports of possible progress in negotiations between the USA and Iran temporarily caused oil prices to fall, many analysts now assume that the market will have to prepare for significantly higher prices in the long term.

Millions of barrels are missing from the market

As a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – one of the most vulnerable points in the global energy system – the oil market is losing 100 million barrels of supply per week. This is reported by CNBC, citing Aramco CEO Amin Nasser. In total, more than a billion barrels have already been withdrawn from the market.

According to the manager, it is now no longer just the supply that is a problem, but the entire logistics. He pointed out that many tankers are no longer where they are needed for smooth supplies. He therefore assumes that if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it would take months for the market to reorganize itself.

funding is severely affected

According to Barron’s, various analysts are also expecting long delays. “The impact on the physical market is extreme, and the impact on the oil market will be very long-lasting, regardless of how quickly the conflict ends,” Raymond James analyst John Freeman was quoted as saying. Noah Barrett, senior energy and utilities analyst at Janus Henderson, is also skeptical: “There is some optimism today that we are closer to the end of the war,” he said. “I don’t think you can just snap your fingers and things will magically go back to normal.” The experts argue that damaged oil facilities cannot be put back into operation in the short term. Even throttled systems cannot simply be restarted immediately.

Inventories are shrinking significantly

According to Barron’s, the development of global reserves is also exacerbating the situation. Existing oil stocks are currently being depleted at an exceptionally high rate. This increases the risk that even minor disruptions could lead to new price jumps.

Persistently high oil prices

Several analysts therefore expect that Brent crude oil could continue to trade in the region of over $100 per barrel for a long time.

According to Barron’s, Freeman expects Brent prices to reach $110 in the third quarter and $100 in the fourth quarter. The high prices could last until 2027, according to the expert.

Morgan Stanley sees Brent climbing even significantly higher in extreme cases. If inventories fall faster than the geopolitical situation eases, Brent could rise to a range of $130 to $150, the US investment bank warns, according to a report by MarketWatch.

What does this mean for private investors?

For investors, a persistently high oil price means one thing above all: energy remains a central driver of inflation. This can have an impact on interest rates, consumption and corporate profits. Energy-intensive sectors in particular could come under pressure, while oil and energy companies tend to benefit.

Private investors should therefore check how badly their portfolio is affected by rising energy prices. Anyone who invests broadly should keep an eye on possible risks in industrial, transport or chemical stocks. At the same time, energy stocks or broadly diversified raw material ETFs can serve to stabilize the portfolio.

What remains important, however, is that the situation is heavily dependent on geopolitical developments. Short-term fluctuations are therefore likely to remain high.

Thomas Zoller, editorial team at finanzen.net

This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. finanzen.net GmbH excludes any claims for recourse.

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