Eurosceptic Babiš wins the elections in the Czech Republic. Does the EU get a third case?

Andrej Babiš, leader of the Ano 2011 party, is the undisputed winner of the parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic. With almost all votes, Ano is 35 percent of the votes, 5 percentage points more than predicted in the polls. Spolu, the center -right Alliance led by the current Prime Minister Petr Fiala, gets 23 percent of the votes.

When the right-wing populist Babiš becomes prime minister again, the Czech Republic joins the Eurosceptic block of Hungary and Slovakia in Central Europe and the Czech support for Ukraine is in danger. But it is not that far yet; A premiership for Babiš is not certain. Three questions about the Czech elections and the key role of Babiš.

1
Who is Andrej Babiš and why is he so popular?

Andrej Babiš (Bratislava, 1954) is the founder and owner of Agroferta holding company with more than 250 subsidiaries in fifteen countries, active in agriculture, food, chemicals, forestry and media. Agrofert is the largest private employer in the Czech Republic. Babiš, because of his business empire and his populism also known as the ‘Czech Trump’, is one of the richest people in the country.

In 2011, Babiš established the party action by dissatisfied citizens (Ano, also ‘yes’ in Czech). Initially, the party was mainly directed against corruption, not against the EU or migration. From 2014 to 2017 he was Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, from 2017 to 2021 he was prime minister. The political career of Babiš is colored by lawsuits over and protest against entanglement of his business and political interests. Critics call him a political wind vane: his views go where the polls are going.

The populist Babiš knows what voters want to hear. He promises reduction in retirement age, a ceiling for energy prices and tax reduction for companies. He wants to stop supporting Ukraine and opposes the EU climate and migration plans. His promises are in line with the concerns of many Czechs: high costs of living, inflation, high defense spending for NATO. Babiš blamed the Fiala government during his campaign that the Czech tax money goes abroad too much.

The government of the center-right, pro-European Prime Minister Petr Fiala has brought back the budget deficit from 5 to 2 percent in the last four years, but repairing public finances appeals less to the imagination than the promises of Babiš. Recovery of the economy and raising wages were too late in Fiala’s Government period. Quarrel within the coalition – the Pirate Party resigned – and a corruption scandal – the Ministry of Justice received 40 million euros in Bitcoins from a drug dealer – did not benefit the government’s appearance.

2
What stands in the way of a government led by Babiš?

Various factors can prevent Babiš prime minister. First, there is the difficult coalition formation. In 2021, Ano was also the largest party, but then Babiš was unable to form a government. Three relatively moderate parties – Spolu, Stan and the Pirate Party – have said they would not work with Ano, the Radical Right Party SPD or the Radical left alliance Stacilo! Babiš seems dependent on cooperation with the SPD and the new radical right -wing party car (motorists for themselves). He will have to make concessions to bring in those extreme parties, and then still has a shaky coalition.

In addition, Babiš has been chased by the Stork Nest fraud case for ten years. To be eligible for a European subsidy of two million euros for small companies, the Ooievaarsnest conference place was temporarily placed at a distance from Agrofert south of Prague. In June, the Supreme Court destroyed an earlier acquittal of Babiš, which means that the case is again under the judge. Incidentally, the amount is small beer in addition to the tens of millions that Agrofert collected to agricultural subsidies in a controversial manner. Monday promised Babiš to President Petr Pavel that he will fully comply with the Czech and EU legislation as a prime minister, and that there will be no conflicts of interest.

The Czech president is the third factor. Petr Pavel, former chairman of the NATO military committee, is a expressed in favor of support to Ukraine and the person who beat Babiš in 2023 in the presidential election. He can one stick For a Babiš government. He said that he will not name ministers who want the Czech Republic from NATO or EU. He will in particular look critically at the interpretation of the Defense and Foreign Affairs portfolios. Babiš itself will not argue for departure from NATO or the EU, but therefore cannot afford ministers from the extreme parties who pursue that.

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3
What are the consequences for Europe if Babiš will rule?

If Babiš succeeds in forming a government, the consequences for both the Czech Republic and the EU are considerable. Nationally, it means that radical right -wing parties get a vote in the government. In a European context, it means that it becomes even more difficult for the EU to agree on financial and military support for Ukraine. A future EU membership of that country, which is now only blocked by Hungary, is also out of sight.

Together with his colleagues Robert Fico in Slovakia and Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Babiš will oppose the implementation of the migration pact and the Green Deal, the EU plans in the field of immigration and climate.

A government Babiš is also not good news for NATO. With the Pavel-Fiala duo, NATO was sure of a solid partner in the last four years. Prague led an international initiative to provide KYIV with ammunition. Babiš is less focused on Moscow than Fico and Orbán, but believes that NATO is exaggerating the Russian threat. He does not want to meet the 5 percent standard for defense expenditure.

The more division within NATO, the more vulnerable the East Flank of NATO and the more favorable for Putin. Even though the Czech Republic is not directly on the eastern border of NATO, that border is near. The political support for a strong eastern flank is under pressure: Romania chose a pro-European president this spring, Poland chose a Trump fan as president.

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