Hi Jeroen, the cliché image I have of Sweden is that of a Valhalla of social democracy. Is it still after Sunday?
“Well, there are two developments in this election that are both inconsistent with that image of a social-democratic paradise. The remarkable thing is that it is very much about gang crime and the many shootings that take place in Sweden. Many of these criminals are in their twenties with a migration background from segregated suburbs. And the second notable thing is that the radical right-wing Sweden Democrats, once founded by neo-Nazis, looks set to become the country’s second-largest party.
The Sweden Democrats say that neo-Nazi past and racism are really behind them. We have kicked out all extremists, says the party leader. But in these elections too, all kinds of politicians from the Sweden Democrats turn up who make unadulterated racist statements and are thrown off the electoral list. That problem has not yet been solved.
‘Candidates also make statements that are on the edge, and that is also the strategy. On the one hand, you have neatly groomed young men who explain their policies in all reasonableness. And on the other side, a candidate tweets a photo of a subway car showing the party’s logo, with the text: ‘Welcome to the repatriation train, you have a one-way ticket. Next stop: Kabul.’
‘Since the Second World War, the Social Democrats have almost always formed the government. They probably remain the largest, but their distance from the rest is getting smaller and smaller. According to the polls, they get 28 percent of the vote. That’s quite a lot, but much less than it was.’
What is the explanation for that?
‘They would like to know that themselves. It previously had to do with the rise of other left-wing parties, such as the Greens. But they’ve also lost votes to the Moderates and the Sweden Democrats, perhaps because people are dissatisfied with the liberal immigration policies and gang approach.
‘In this campaign it is also striking that the Social Democrats have turned to the right. For example, they argue for ‘ethnic ceilings’ in neighborhoods where many people with a migration background live. You’ve never heard such bold statements before.
“It’s a strategy similar to that of the Social Democrats in Denmark, who, by being as right-wing or even more right-wing than the populists on migration, try to win votes there and then carry through their social-democratic left program. The difference is that the Danish Social Democrats started it from the opposition and had time to implement this approach consistently.
“Sweden has a big problem with shootings. On average, there are 45 fatal shootings per year, and mind you, those are just the fatal ones. At this rate, police think there will be 75 this year. Most gunmen are children of migrants and most shootings take place in neighborhoods where many people with a migrant background live. The problem for the Social Democrats is that all this happened under their rule. So it is difficult to campaign with the Danish approach then.’
Across Europe, the current political theme is rising inflation and, in particular, rising energy prices. What role does that play in Sweden?
‘That is the second theme after gang crime. Residents in the south of Sweden in particular suffer from the high prices. People pay five times as much for electricity as in the rest of the country.
‘Sweden is divided into different price regions for electricity. If the price of energy in neighboring countries goes up, the price in southern Sweden also goes up. In the north there are many hydroelectric power stations, but not many people live there. So the supply is high and the demand is low. As a result, the price is also lower. The problem is that not all that energy can be diverted to the south. This is partly due to the capacity of the power grid.
‘The campaign is now mainly about nuclear energy. Energy supplier Vattenfall has closed nuclear power plants and the discussion is now about whether that is the government’s fault or not.’
Our elections have been characterized in recent years by polarization and fragmentation. Is that also the case in Sweden?
‘Much less. It is quite clear which parties there are. This also has to do with the electoral threshold of 4 percent of the vote. That is also an explanation why the Sweden Democrats, who are comparable to the PVV, only entered parliament relatively late compared to other countries: in 2010.
‘The difference with the Netherlands is that parties join a bloc before the elections, from which one prime minister’s candidate is put forward. So you have the left-wing bloc, with current prime minister Magdalena Andersson as prime minister, and the right-wing bloc with moderates prime minister Ulf Kristersson.
“The Sweden Democrats are in the right-wing bloc, but if they become the biggest, they don’t supply the prime minister. The other right-wing parties want to cooperate with the Sweden Democrats, but not govern with them. So then there is a kind of tolerance construction. And the Sweden Democrats also think that’s fine, that they bear no government responsibility.
“Right now the difference in the polls between the left and right blocs is minimal, so it’s going to be very exciting. That’s probably why we won’t know the result until Monday.’
If the blocks are known in advance, we should therefore not expect Dutch situations when it comes to concluding a coalition agreement.
‘Of course it helps that you announce what you want in advance. But last time it took a historically long time of about one hundred and twenty days. Four months is of course a long time, but nothing compared to the snail’s pace in the Netherlands.’