Chinese President Xi Jinping had direct telephone contact with his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky on Wednesday for the first time since the start of the war. In doing so, Xi did something for the first time in a long time that appealed more to the United States than to Russia.
White House Security Council spokesman John Kirby called it “a good thing” that both leaders have now met, though he added that a negotiated peace won’t be a good idea until Zelensky is done with it. before.
The spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry reacted much more lukewarm to the call. “We take note of the willingness of the Chinese side to make efforts to come to a negotiation process,” said Maria Zakharova. She added that negotiations are unlikely under the current circumstances.
Phone calls have been in the air for a long time
The rumor that Xi would call Zelensky has been circulating since it was announced that Xi would visit Russian President Putin in Moscow in March. But then no such phone call came.
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Xi has a much closer relationship with Putin: Xi spoke to him shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the time, he called the partnership with Russia “unbounded.” After the outbreak of war, Xi spoke with Putin five times, twice in face-to-face meetings. Zelensky, meanwhile, has not heard from Xi at all, even though the two countries have maintained diplomatic ties for more than 30 years.
Why Xi calls Zelensky now is subject to speculation. For example, one analyst suggested that Xi might have received signals from Putin that Russia was now ripe for negotiations. That seems to be contradicted by the lukewarm and slightly dismissive tone in Russia’s response to the call.
Xi may also have been responding to the unrest in many European capitals over statements made earlier this week by Chinese Ambassador Lu Shaye. He said there are no effective international agreements underpinning the independence of former Soviet republics, including Ukraine. Beijing distanced itself from Lu’s statements.
His statements came at a time when EU countries were contemplating the formulation of a new China policy. Perhaps it was a personal slip-up, but it raised fears among European countries that Lu had exposed something of what really goes on behind the scenes in Beijing.
European mistrust
Be that as it may, the ruling strengthened European mistrust of China. Was China really as neutral in the war with Ukraine as Beijing itself said? Or is China in fact working with Russia to create a new, authoritarian world order?
China is currently putting a lot of energy into trying to separate Europe from the United States and to convince Europe of China’s good intentions. Xi may have made the call just now to repair the damage Ambassador Lu inflicted.
Some analysts think that China is now eager to end the war, because otherwise the world economy will struggle to recover. China’s economy is also suffering.
Failed mediation attempts
The Chinese state newspaper the Global Times let Chinese experts speak which emphasize that other countries have failed in their mediation efforts, but that China can now be a credible and influential mediator in the conflict. They also connect it to China’s broader role as an international peacemaker, a role China’s Xi Jinping is increasingly emphasizing.
China plans to send a senior envoy to Ukraine and other countries in the region to establish “deep communication” with all parties to reach a political solution to the war, China’s foreign ministry announced on Wednesday . Li Hui, Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs and Chinese Ambassador to Russia from 2009 to 2019. In any case, this means that China’s diplomatic involvement in the war will deepen.
Whether China’s more active mediation can actually lead to direct negotiations between Russia and China is doubtful. The basic conditions for such conversations are missing completely until now. Ukraine will only negotiate on the condition that Russia recognizes that the now-occupied territories and Crimea also belong to Ukraine. That is unacceptable for Russia. China has not yet given any indication of how Beijing thinks it can solve that.