The invasion of Ukraine has changed everything in the world political and economic scene. The United States and Europe have decided to help Ukraine thoroughly in the face of Russian aggression. Both militarily and with an economic blockade of Moscow that Putin had to rectify. But, just as Russia has not been able to surrender Germany -and Europe- by cutting off gas sales, the western boycott has not had the expected success either, because China and other countries have not joined. And China has acted as Russia’s protector -even if it does not provide it with weapons-, which has greatly cooled its relationship with Europe and worsened its conflict with the US even more.
Today, the war in Ukraine seems to have no way out. Putin cannot lose because he has the atomic weapon and defeat would be its political death, and Ukraine also does not because of the impressive resistance of the population – be careful, both the Ukrainian and Russian-speaking ones – and because the West is not going to let it fall. But if China, which has already announced a vague peace plan for Ukraine, exerts its influence on Moscow, the horizon could clear something. Both Macron, accompanied by Ursula von der Leyen, as well as Foreign Minister Scholz and Pedro Sánchez himself told Xi during their recent visits to Beijing that he should open a dialogue with Zelenski. And now, for the first time, Xi has phoned kyiv.
The call seems to have been positive because Zelensky has said that it was long (almost an hour), useful and profitable, and that he believes that the appointment of a new ambassador in Beijing It will give a powerful boost to the relations of the two countries. And the Chinese president’s spokesmen insisted that respect for mutual sovereignty and territorial integrity is the basis of relations between the two countries. Also that China would send a representative to “Eurasia & rdquor; that he would visit Ukraine and other countries (Russia?) to “seek a resolution of the crisis (he does not say war) through a broad dialogue between all parties & rdquor ;.
We are before a clear gesture of Xi seeking to confirm China’s role as a great power interested in a peaceful world order (it has mediated relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and has just received President Lula). And this gesture to the EU – the economy is important and Brussels counts in Washington – would be of little use if it does not loosen Putin’s rigidity somewhat. Xi knows.
And that Putin makes his position more flexible and an improvement in the relationship with European countries It could also contribute to “pacify & rdquor; the political, economic and military influence conflict in Southeast Asia between the United States and China. Some analysts say that both Chinese nationalism – Taiwan – and the rivalry between the two great world powers make an escalation of tension almost inevitable. Until where? But the influential American Secretary of the Treasury, Economist Janet Yellen has said that the United States is “vigilant”, but it does not want to suffocate the Chinese economy and that the division of the world into two economic blocs would be very negative.
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And China, unlike Russia, is a rising power. It has no interest in putting a spoke in the wheels of world trade, the basis of its growth, nor on the essential international cooperation to fight climate change.
The phone call to Zelensky indicates that Xi is Russia’s great ally, but he knows that China, one of the two great powers, it doesn’t suit her to get caught up in the mistakes of the Russian dictator. Another thing is that he is capable of having great diplomatic success leading Putin to a difficult “honorable” peace. Zelenski, who is not soft, bets on it.