ABSTRACT: The daily chart shows that the commodity has continued to be weak. It went further down this trading week, but only moderately. After the commodity pushed below the SMA20 (currently at $81.20), the upside has reached the SMA20 at the beginning of the week – but no more. From here it went down again. The daily chart can thus be interpreted as neutral.
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Current STI oil analysis on August 17th, 2023: chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
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Latest Oil Market News WTI 🔴 WTI Trading Ideas 🔴 WTI Forecast & Outlook
STI framework conditions:
Consumer sentiment in the euro zone deteriorated in August. The indicator currently fell to -16 points. Analysts had expected an increase. The August drop was the first since March of this year. In September 2022, the indicator had a value of -28.7 points. Overall, the mood in the euro zone is extremely depressed.
Of course, this gloomy mood also has an impact on consumption – not only in Germany. The gastronomy sector in particular is affected by the bad mood. High prices, a lack of staff and the upcoming increase in VAT on food to 19% are putting the industry under pressure. It is expected that around 10% of hospitality businesses could go out of business over the next 12 months.
WTI Review (08/17/2023 – 08/23/2023)
STI was hovering in the $79.20 range at the start of our review period on Thursday of the last trading week, down $5.43 from five trading days earlier. The commodity recovered more significantly by Thursday afternoon, giving back some of its gains by the close of trading. On Friday of the last week of trading, there was initially further weakness, but prices turned around in the afternoon and the commodity managed to format a weekly close above the 80 US dollar mark. At the beginning of the week, the recovery initially continued. It went into the $81.73 area. This is where profit taking came in on Monday afternoon. The listing was not able to recover substantially in the further course of trading. It was going sideways/down in one box through Wednesday morning. The box was then resolved downwards. WTI fell as low as $77.59 on Wednesday afternoon and was only able to stabilize around this level and then recover.
The high for the period under review was well below the level of the previous period – the same is true for the low formatted on Wednesday. The weekly close was above the 80 US dollar mark, but also well below the level of the previous week. The range was smaller than in the last observation period and was just over the 4 US dollar mark.
On the upside, we expected WTI to break through $81.55/$57 and continue to our next target on the upside at $81.69/$71. This movement has set in, the start-up target has been reached and just exceeded, so the setup did not work optimally. The pullbacks did not go below $77.76/$74 to our next target on the downside at $77.48/$46.
WTI – How could it go on?
STI resistances
- 78.62
- 79.19
- 79.25
- 79.62
- 80.37
- 80.58
- 81.20
- 81.73
- 82.91
- 111.38
STI supports
- 76.52
- 75.87
- 74.58
- 72.37
- 68.61
The most important brands based on our WTI setup:
- Intraday mark $88.50 and $71.50
- Daily close marks $94.00 and $59.00
- Break1 Bull (Wo-Close) ($114.50)
- Break2 Bull (Mon-Close) ($137.00)
- Boxing range $114.50 to $59.00
- Area Bull 1>$71.00
- Area Bull 2 >$58.50
- Cyclic movements 2020 – 2033
- boxing area $159.00 to $38.50
- Range $211.00 to $24.00
WTI outlook for the next five trading days:
Chart check – viewing in the DAILY/4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that the commodity has continued to be weak. It went further down this trading week, but only moderately. After the commodity pushed below the SMA20 (currently at $81.20), the upside has reached the SMA20 at the beginning of the week – but no more. From here it went down again. The daily chart can thus be interpreted as neutral.
As long as the commodity is trading below the SMA20 at the end of the day, it is conceivable and possible that further pullbacks could occur that could reach the SMA50 (currently at $76.52) / SMA200 (currently at $75.87) dollars) could go. In the area of these two lines, the commodity could recover again if the levies reach these two average lines.
Should there be any recovery, this could initially reach the area of the SMA20. The decisive factor will then be whether WTI can move above this average line again at the end of the day and then settle down. Should this scenario materialise, further rallies could set in which have the prospect of running into the $88.50/$65 area.
- Superordinate chart image, daily assessment: neutral
4 hour chart:
The commodity initially fell below the SMA20 (currently at $79.62), but was able to push back above this line after a few attempts. In the course of further upward movement, it went to the SMA50 (currently at 80.37 US dollars), which was just reached. There was renewed pressure to sell here. The commodity fell below the SMA20 and subsequently below the SMA200 midweek (currently at $79.19). The countermovement went back to and above this average line.
As a result, the 4-hour chart has clouded over. The commodity must try to get above the SMA200 as well as directly above the SMA20 as soon as possible. Since both lines are currently close together, overcoming them will probably only be possible with dynamism and momentum. If this occurs, the SMA50 must also be overcome. However, price patterns at the moment suggest that it may not necessarily be easy. If this occurs and WTI can firm above the SMA50, it could head back towards the $84/$85 area.
However, if the move does not succeed and the commodity settles below the SMA200, the chart picture would become noticeably cloudy again. There could be further levies that have the prospect of running into the 73/71 US dollar area.
- Chart picture, assessment 4h chart: neutral / bearish
Conclusion: WTI needs to settle above the 20-day moving average again by the end of the day. If successful, the upward movement could resume. The chart picture would cloud over if the commodity were to settle below the US$ 76.00 mark.
- Probability of bull scenario based on our setup: 40%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 60%
For the WTI oil market in the next five trading days:
Long Setups: If WTI holds above $78.40, the commodity could try our next targets at 78.62/64, at 78.83/85, at 78.97/99, at 79.19/21, at 79.25/27, at 79.45/47, at 79.61/63, at 79.80/82, at 80.01/03, at 80.11/13, at 80.37/39, at 80.58/60 and $80.86/88 respectively. If the commodity can push above $80.86/88 then it could continue higher towards our next targets at 81.01/03, at 81.18/20, at 81.32/34, at 81.55 /57, at 81.71/73, at 81.99/82.01, at 82.19/21, at 82.39/41, at 82.64/66, at 82.80/82 and then at 83 $.05/07 go.
Short setup: If the commodity cannot hold above 78.40, WTI could be our next targets at 78.15/13, at 77.98/96, at 77.76/74, at 77.48/46, at 77.21 /19, at $76.99/97, at $76.79/77, at $76.55/53, and then at $76.34/32. Below $76.34/32, our next targets would be 76.15/13, 76.08/06, 75.89/87, 75.78/76, 75.65/63, $75.50/48, $75.36/34, $75.10/08, $74.87/85, $74.69/67, and $74.49/47 respectively.
Overarching expected trend in the period under review:
Sources: xStation5 by XTB
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