It was nothing more than a dead and buried corpse, but the atrocious violence unleashed by the attack of Hamas over the south of Israel on October 7 and the subsequent Israeli military assault on Loop has put the old one back into orbit formula of the two states for resolve the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis. He status quo it just doesn’t work. It does not bring peace or security to either party. An incontestable conclusion that has led to USAthe European Union, China or the Arabian countries to demand the opening of a political process as soon as the war ends based on the formula of peace for territories. The only thing left to know is whether the option remains viable, given the intractable reality on the ground, and whether there is more to the international rhetoric than the same empty words and failed strategies that have made the two states a permanent failure.
The well-intentioned rhetoric is there. Spain want to organize a peace conference as soon as the bombs stop. Brussels He insists that it is the only solution, to which “we must dedicate all our political energy,” in the words of Josep Borrell. And from Washington, the mantra is even more insistent. Lately it has been repeated daily for a purely domestic issue: the re-election of Joe Biden could depend on it, after his carte blanche to Israel has angered many Democratic voters. “The two state solution “It is the only way to guarantee long-term security for Israelis and Palestinians,” Biden wrote in a recent forum in ‘The Washington Post’. “This crisis has made it more imperative than ever.”
He international consensus It is largely shared by Israelis and Palestinians who still advocate a fairly just solution to the conflict, although they do not necessarily believe in its viability. The alternative, a binational state with equal rights for Israelis and Palestinians, has never gained traction. “The Palestinians would have to give up their right to self-determination and Israelis to live in a Jewish and democratic state. “It is crazy and the population would not accept it,” says the former Israeli Minister of Justice. Yossi Beilinwho was leader of the leftist party Meretz and one of the negotiators in the failed peace processes.
It is not lost on anyone that the two States will only be able to take flight if the external pressure It is massive and there is a desire to penalize actions that contravene the objectives of the agreement. “It could only work if the same manual from the last 30 years”, says the Palestinian political commentator Nour Odeh. “To create a political horizon, the world has to make it clear that they have to end the israeli occupation and the settlement expansion“, and that the political process cannot be prolonged indefinitely,” he adds in an interview.
Problematic leadership on both sides
But first the current leaders on both sides should disappear, each for different reasons. The Palestinian Mahmoud Abbaswho rules in West Bank as an autocrat for 19 years, because he has lost all legitimacy among his population, no matter how much the white horse from Europe and the USA for his unwavering commitment to peace. Quite the opposite of Hamas, who is currently fighting for his survival in Gaza. Neither Israel nor the West will ever accept that the Islamists are a valid interlocutor due to their recourse to terrorism and because a part of its organizational chart does not accept a Jewish State in a single centimeter of historical Palestine.
Finally he would have to leave Binyamin Netanyahu, who has dedicated his political career to torpedo a Palestinian statefragmenting its territory, fueling its internal divisions and promoting Hamas to serve as a pretext for the Israeli immobility. Or to be more exact, its continuous expansionism. “Netanyahu’s government will fall as soon as the war is over,” says Beilin, repeating the consensus opinion in Israel. “Whether through elections or a vote of no confidence. And if he doesn’t leave, people will throw him out with protests in the street.” As viable alternatives capable of embracing a peace process he points to the main opposition leaders: Yair Lapid and Benny Gantzboth currently in the unity government.
So far the theoretically ‘easiest’ part of the mess: the political will, both internal and external, essential to start speaking. The hardest part is the fine print of the agreement and the conditions on the ground to be able to implement it. And this is where everything gets a little more complicated, although after three decades of multiple failed initiatives, the contours of what the agreement should look like are quite clear. “Historically the most difficult thing has been Jerusalem and the luck of the palestinian refugees“But now the big problem is the massive Israeli presence in the West Bank,” says Beilin in a telephone interview.
The devilish reality on the ground
In 1993when the Oslo Accords, the first attempt at a two-state solution, there were 90,000 Jewish settlers there. Today there is 500,000distributed in some 350 settlements, some little more than a handful of caravans and others real cities, even though they are all illegal under international law. “Most settlements are strategically located to break the continuity of Palestinian territory and prevent a State from being established there,” says the activist Dror Etkesone of the Israelis who best knows the fabric of the israeli occupation in the West Bank. “The entire Israeli system is aimed at support colonization“So Israel would have to reinvent itself if it wants to end the project.”
To think that this entire structure could be dismantled is nothing short of illusory. The settlers today control large spaces in the Army and the Israeli political power, They are heavily armed and do not aspire to share the territory, but rather to empty it of Palestinians. And although the latter accepted that the great settlement blocks come under Israeli sovereignty, they would continue to remain at least 130,000 settlers within the borders of the hypothetical Palestinian State. The most radical among them, to be exact.
Skepticism among public opinion
But if there is political will, nothing is technically impossible. Two years ago Yossi Beilin presented together with the Palestinian negotiator Hiba Husseini and their respective teams a detailed proposal to create two confederate states with Jerusalem as shared capital. “The main point of the confederation is that settlers who wish could remain in Palestine as permanent residents and maintaining Israeli citizenship. The same number of Palestinians could stay in Israel under similar conditions,” explains Beilin.
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Of the four experts consulted, the historic leader of the Israeli anti-occupation left is the only one who is somewhat optimistic in the current conditions. The rest are as skeptical of the two states as public opinion on both sides. Weeks before the start of the war, only the 35% of Israelis I thought it was possible live together in peace next to a Palestinian State, while only a 24% of Palestinians They supported that formula, 35 points less than in 2012.
“Only if there were sanctions against Israel and if he were to be held accountable for his actions, the pendulum could swing, but none of that is going to happen in the current political climate,” he says. Diana Buttu, who was spokesperson for the PLO and legal advisor in the negotiation processes. “Unless there is coercive intervention by the international community, both sides will continue to kill each other because there is too much hatred and religious fundamentalism. “The conflict is not improving, quite the opposite,” says the Israeli Dror Etkes.