World leaders know how to temper geopolitical tension

Had Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau been naughty? At a G20 summit, standing in a room with other leaders, he had a chat with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Afterwards, the press could read what the leaders had discussed. That was not the intention, thought China. Xi then called Trudeau to account, with the obviousness with which a master corrects a student.

It was one of many diplomatic scenes that last week offered a glimpse of the relations in the world. The common thread: even though the tension can be cut, thanks to consultation, escalation was contained for the time being and accidents prevented.

Diplomatic Final

The world also learned once again that you shouldn’t be too sensitive when dealing with authoritarian leaders. Turkish President Erdogan, also adept at the bitter register, was missing from a NATO meeting that US President Joe Biden had convened in Bali. Erdogan when asked why not: “We are not obliged to attend meetings that do not matter.”

Yet it was as if the political feeling temperature dropped for a moment. Despite the war in Europe, despite the fierce competition between the superpowers China and the US and despite the anger of the Global South about Western negligence in the climate debate. “There will be no new Cold War,” Biden promised.

The week started with a meeting between Xi and Biden (G2), followed by a meeting of the twentieth largest economies (G20) in Bali. The diplomatic final – the conclusion of the climate talks in Egypt – was not made on Friday evening. Climate experts saw a hopeful sign in the long consultations.

In the meantime, NATO proved the importance of thoughtful action. It was quickly determined that the explosion that killed two people in Poland’s border region with Ukraine was most likely caused by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile and not by a Russian attack.

What did the week actually deliver?

The Taiwan issue

The leaders of China and the US agreed that ministers and senior officials will resume talks. For example, the US Secretary of State Blinken will visit China. Talks had been cut to a minimum over the summer after Beijing was enraged by a visit to Taiwan by Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi.

Biden did his best to ease tensions around the island, which sees itself as independent but which Beijing sees as part of China. He underlined that US policy is unchanged. The US does not recognize Taiwan as a state, but it treats it that way and deliberately leaves open what it will do if China takes over Taiwan. Despite that formal line, Biden had repeatedly said that he would defend Taiwan militarily if necessary. That provocation has now ceased.

Despite that formal line, Biden had repeatedly said that he would defend Taiwan militarily if necessary. That provocation has now ceased.

This does not, of course, resolve the Taiwan issue. Taiwan is a red line that the US should not cross, China underlined afterwards. Taiwan, China’s state news agency Xinhua sternly said, is an internal Chinese affair.

In Bali, the G20 reached an agreement on a final statement in which “most” countries disapprove of the war in Ukraine, as well as the use of nuclear weapons. They also point to the consequences of the war for the economy and food shortages. It was a surprise that China did not block the statement. Putin himself was not there. He had sent Foreign Minister Lavrov to take the criticism. Lavrov left the conference early.

The value of a final statement is, of course, limited. Still, the German thinks Chancellor Scholz that the risk of Putin resorting to a nuclear weapon is now lower. “The world has become a lot safer.” According to him, the statement also proves that Putin has fewer and fewer friends.

Mediators

In Bali, the medium powers Indonesia and India in particular received praise for their work as mediators. Turkey played an important role in the grain deal, which was extended. Erdogan is also said to have urged Putin to resume talks about ending the war in a phone call with Putin on Friday. In his speech to what he called the ‘G19’, President Zelensky underlined that Ukraine wants to fight on for the time being and later wants a peace agreement that Putin cannot break open.

Which way the weekly balance for diplomacy swings depends on the result in Egypt. Will an agreement be reached that overcomes existing contradictions?

Negotiations have been going on for two weeks without significant progress. As so often, the hard positions have to become liquid in stoppage time. The opening bid for the final round of talks came from the European Union. European Commissioner Frans Timmermans said that the EU is prepared to contribute to a compensation fund for poor countries affected by natural disasters as a result of climate change.

Read also: “Dear G19,” said Zelensky in his address to the G20

The European offer is not unconditional. For example, the EU wants the final declaration to advocate scaling down the use of all fossil fuels, including oil and gas, in stronger terms than in the draft versions. In addition, the EU sets conditions for the fund itself: to payers and recipients. The US should participate, but also some countries that were still officially designated as developing countries in 1992, when the foundations for international climate negotiations were laid, such as China, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. And only the poorest countries are eligible for financial aid, according to the EU.

The US is not happy with the proposal, they do not feel like a compensation fund. China, on the other hand, is a strong supporter, but does not want to contribute for fear that it will lose its formal status as a developing country. Some wealthier developing countries, such as South Africa, realize that they will never receive money from this fund in the European proposal. Ultimately, therefore, many countries will have to make concessions.

With the cooperation of Paul Luttikhuis.

A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of November 19, 2022