Penalties play an important role at the World Cup in Qatar. The success rate for shooters is low, especially under high pressure. An expert also explains this with a rule change.
The air pressure must be determined precisely, as must the tire pressure. However, the pressure that weighs on a footballer when the ball is eleven meters away from the goal knows no unit.
This pressure is quite low when Robert Lewandowski tries to convert a penalty in the ninth minute of stoppage time, as happened against France in the round of 16, when the score was 0-3. It was immense for Harry Kane, however, when he was faced with the task of converting a second penalty when the score was 2-1 against France in the quarter-finals. He shot over the goal, England was eliminated.
Only in 2010 were the shooters even less successful
Kane’s penalty was one of six missed in the group, round of 16 and quarter-finals games in regulation and overtime. With 19 penalties imposed, this corresponds to a rate of around 32 percent. Conversely, 68 percent of the penalties were converted.
This is the second-worst figure since a World Cup began playing in 1998 with 32 teams and according to the format that is still used today. In South Africa 2010, only nine out of 15 penalties, ie 60 percent, were converted. In France 1998 and Brazil 2014, more than 90 percent of penalties were converted. Statistical research with a database of thousands of penalties has shown that around three out of four penalties are usually converted, i.e. 75 percent.
| WM | penalty kicks | transformed | percent |
|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 19 | 13 | 68 |
2018 | 29 | 22 | 76 |
2014 | 13 | 12 | 92 |
2010 | 15 | 9 | 60 |
2006 | 17 | 13 | 76 |
2002 | 18 | 13 | 72 |
1998 | 18 | 17 | 94 |
Error in the FIFA evaluation
FIFA’s Technical Study Group, which took stock of the quarter-finals in Doha on Monday (12/12/2022), claimed that 36 percent of penalties at the Qatar tournament were saved, not counting the four shoot-outs so far.
However, an error must have crept in with this calculation, because even if Kane’s shot over the goal is considered “saved”, the rate is only 32 percent. If only the penalty kicks deflected by the goalkeeper are counted as “saved”, the rate is only around 26 percent.
New rule for goalkeepers
In view of the error in the calculation, the statements made by Pascal Zuberbühler, a member of the technical study group, must be put into perspective. The former Swiss national goalkeeper said in an interview with the sports show that a modification of the rules three years ago was responsible for the increase in missed penalties. “This rule change was necessary because the goalkeepers kept getting further away from the line to shorten the angle.”
However, this was due to the fact that the old rule was rarely strictly applied by the referees. The fact that the goalkeeper had to stand with both feet on or behind the goal line until the kicker touched the ball was hardly punished in the event of disregard.
Only at first glance a disadvantage for the keeper
To change this, the rule was relaxed. That sounds bizarre. However, the announcement to the referees that they would also severely punish offenses with the help of the video assistant meant that the rule change, only having to be one foot on or behind the line, “initially sounded very negative for the goalkeepers“.
In the meantime, however, the change has turned out to be a blessing for the goalkeepers, because one foot can be moved forward, which allows a better push-off. “Your left or right foot lands, and that’s where the explosiveness has to come from“, said Zuberbühler. Which foot that is, according to the 51-year-old Swiss, determines the corner that the goalkeeper usually still chooses.
Rate in penalties even lower
As an example of his theory, Zuberbühler cited Virgil van Dijk’s penalty, which was saved by Argentina’s goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez in the quarter-finals. “Martínez keeps the penalty extremely in the side. That penalty was a great one, but if the goalkeeper chooses the right side with this new rule, you clearly have an advantage“, said Zuberbühler, who played for Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga in the 2000/01 season.
Van Dijk’s missed shot was the first in Netherlands’ penalty shootout against Argentina in the quarterfinals. If only the penalties are counted in that part of a knockout game, which usually increases the pressure on players even further, the success rate drops. Of 33 penalties in a shootout, only 20 were converted, so the rate is a good 60 percent. Spain failed with all three of them in the round of 16 against Morocco, one hit the post, the other two were blocked by goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, aka Bono.
Croatia is an expert in exceptional situations
The semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup, which begins on Tuesday (December 13, 2022, kick-off 8 p.m., live from 6.50 p.m. on the first and in the stream on sportschau.de) with the game between Argentina and Croatia, will be starred by stars such as Lionel Messi, Luka Modric and Kylian Mbappé, but also shaped by the goalkeepers.
Croatia’s Dominik Livaković saved a total of four penalties in the two shoot-outs against Japan and Brazil. Only three of the eight penalties against him in the showdown were converted. When the pressure on Marquinhos reached its maximum because the Brazilian would have needed to convert to keep the favorite in the game and therefore in the tournament, he hit the post.
Croatia, on the other hand, who survived the round of 16 and quarter-finals on penalties in Russia, converted seven of the eight penalties.
Goalkeeper with high shots almost no chance
Analysis of the 19 penalties at the World Cup, excluding penalties, shows that shots into the top half of the goal have a significantly better chance of success. Four of the goalkeeper’s five shots were saved low, while Lionel Messi’s penalty against Poland was only half-height. His in-game penalty against the Netherlands, on the other hand, was just as splendidly aimed in the top half of the goal and in the right corner as Harry Kane’s first against France was in the left.
“Clearly the high penalties“, said Zuberbühler to the shots, where the goalkeeper has almost no chance. That’s why Kane often shoots high. That the second penalty “too high” was scheduled could also have had something to do with a special situation: “And when the keeper knows how Kane takes penalties, like Hugo Lloris, who trains with him every day (at Tottenham Hotspur), I don’t know if it was an advantage that he played twice.”