Felipe VI has asked for unity and fewer confrontations in the constituent session of the Cortes. It’s a good wish. But let’s go to a “super rant” legislature, even more than last. And Sánchez goes with the cross on his back of the price of the investiture: of the amnesty. I have already written that it could be positive to bury the serious Catalan crisis of 2017, But this required that it be the result of a very broad consensus and not blackmail for the investiture.
It has not been like that and although the amnesty approves in Catalonia (55% against 32%), In the rest of Spain the rejection is very strong (67% against 27%). With two derivatives. One, if elections were repeated, the PP (with Vox) would have an absolute majority (between 175 and 185 seats), and the PSOE would drop from 121 to 105-110, according to the Gesop survey for Prensa Ibérica on Monday. The other is that the PP, which is hurt by the fact that it has allowed Sánchez’s inauguration, resorts to the amnesty to beat the Government and disqualify it in the eyes of public opinion. And before Europe. The blame is not only on the amnesty because itThe PP already declared war on Sánchez in 2018 when the motion of censure against Rajoy. And with Casado and Feijóo, he has not fulfilled the constitutional obligation to renew the General Council of the Judiciary for five years. All so as not to lose the current majority of it.
But the rejection of the amnesty is very much alive – and reaches just over half of the socialist electorate – because in addition the indestructible pact document between the PSOE and Puigdemont makes a synthesis with concessions in favor of the ‘procés’, contrary to what the PSOE said. He himself has reported it Josep Borrell, Sánchez’s former Foreign Minister, today European Commissioner. The worst is Sánchez will carry the cross of amnesty on his back for a long time and that Feijóo, in the opposition despite having been the most voted list, has no incentive to reduce tension. He is going to maintain it to make the European elections in June 2024 a referendum against the amnesty. And against Sánchez.
But we are not at the bottom of the well. Not even the standard of living of the Spanish is that of the Second Republic, Not even the wildest of the parties (let alone unions) dream of having weapons. We live in a prosperous and complicated Europe which is, although limited, life insurance. And the citizens do not like the PSOE-PP war. Not even a good part of the political class. The Andalusian president of the PP, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, with an absolute majority, has just signed an agreement with the minister Teresa Rivera very close to Sánchez, to put an end to the Doñana water war. She has withdrawn her law from the Andalusian parliament in exchange for affected farmers receiving compensation to abandon their crops, or convert them to dry land. And Moreno Bonilla contributes more voters to the PP than Isabel Ayuso!
And Spain is not sinking either. The forecasts are average (GDP will grow by 1.4% in 2024, compared to 2.4% in this year and 5% in 2022), but above the European average. And this week the Ibex has recovered the 10,000 points it had before the pandemic and has appreciated more than 21% in the year, more than 11% in November. No, it is not the merit of the Government. Banks rise due to interest rates and international funds, who are the big investors; They do not buy Spain but rather thriving companies such as Inditex, Aena, Amadeus, Fluidra, Indra… But if we were that bad, the Ibex would not be one of the best indices in Europe this year.
But beware! The warnings – the latest from the OECD – about the public deficit are there. There is no oven for the buns. Vice President Yolanda Díaz, who believes that state money is manna that falls from the sky. And he is already attacking Calviño saying that Labor’s powers are his, ignoring that it is the Council of Ministers that makes the relevant decisions. But Calviño is with one foot in and one foot out.
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And meanwhile, the president is more attentive to Sumar than to the economy, he carries the cross on the amnesty and must monitor Puigdemont’s intentions in the Catalan elections. Bad, because they come back EU fiscal rules and the European Central Bank will no longer be the good fairy of recent years. Now he shoots against inflation, not against the crisis. Does Sánchez know?