Will Vox enter the Government of Andalusia? 5 keys to answer this question

Some commentators point out these days that what happened in Andalusia is most likely to happen in Castile and Leon. That is, that the PP has no other option than govern with Vox. According to this narrative, once a new way of relating, the coalition, has been installed, it would be unjustifiable to back down if both parties need each other. Two important points escape this type of argument. First, that the PP of Andalusia It constitutes the most moderate vertex of the party. those of Juanma Moreno have defended tooth and nail their model of centrist government, with or without Citizens. This strategy is reasonable for a party, the Andalusian PP, which intends to consolidate itself in what until just four years ago was a socialist fiefdom. In a few words, sociologically, Andalusia is not Castilla y León.

The second point is that the strength of the PP in Andalusia is superior to that of Castile and Leon. Moreno is today one of the autonomous barons with a higher valuation. This reputation gives him a broad bargaining power, further reinforced by the renewed leadership of the national PP. The element that best represents the solvency with which the PP faces the elections is the fact that at this point there is no imaginable government that does not have the participation of the popular. According to the most recent data from Predi, there is hardly a 8% chance that the next government is not led by the current president of the Board.

According to the same data, the PP-Vox coalition is the most likely government (54%), but the option of a monocolor government of the PP with the Vox external support it follows as the second most likely (32%). The rest of the options are highly unlikely, such as a government agreed with the PSOE (3% in total) or a government with Cs (1%).

Others evoke Isabel Diaz Ayuso. They argue that if the Andalusian PP flexes as the Madrid PP did, it will be able to force Vox to support a single-color government of Moreno. The truth is that the relative strength of the Andalusian PP is far from that harvested by the Ayuso PP just a year ago. According to data from Predi, the Andalusian PP would get the 41% of seats (45), eleven points below the 52% of seats won by the Madrid PP. The difference between one case and another is seen more clearly when we measure the right intrablock pulse. The popular people of Madrid managed to keep Vox below 10% of the vote. The percentage of Andalusian far-rightists, according to Predi data, will be closer to 15-17%.

Without the slack PP of Madridbut neither is the weakness of the Castilian Leonese PP, the PP of Moreno is located halfway. This balance position is interesting because it will serve as a thermometer for the popular ones in the future. If they end up giving the expected results, two questions will abound in discussions: if the PP refuses to cede the vice presidency to them, will Vox be willing to force a repeat elections in a community governed by a PP well valued by its voters? The other side of this question is: will the PP be capable of stressing a repetition of elections at the risk of appearing incapable of forming a government and thus giving wings to the centre-left formations? There is still an entire electoral campaign ahead and the expectations around these questions can move the votes and therefore the force with which the parties face these issues.

The left has experienced difficult elections in recent times. The two most recent attest to it. In Madrid, alone More Madrid managed to get a moralizing result. In Castilla y León, where the constellation of parties of the Spain Emptied It fulfilled expectations, not even that because they were left out of the Cortes.

The two state left parties, PSOE Y United We Can, face these elections with the disappointment of the previous elections and a trail of wear and tear on the government. To the PSOE of Andalusia is added the penalty of the past that continues to pay. In the case of United We Can, or its superior project in the south —Through Andalusia—, the conflicts between the formations that comprise it, in addition to the scuffles with the splinters of Forward Andalusia.

Be it for one reason or another, the left has three challenges in this campaign. First, fight the demobilization of an electorate. Voters need a reason to vote. Either for an exciting project, capable of governing, or negatively: against a government that must be replaced. Second, stop the center left to center right leaks. The most strategic socialist voters may consider voting for the PP to prevent it from needing Vox and ruling the extreme right. The left will have to explain the usefulness of their vote. Third, neither PSOE, much less Por Andalucía, have extremely well-known candidates. John Swords and Inma Grandson they will do well to propose a strategy that directs attention to their candidacies, to their issues, that draws them into the electoral imaginary of the most clueless voters.

Andalusia usually inaugurates the new phases of the Spanish party system. For reasons of ‘timing’, Andalusian elections were the first to measure the strength of Podemos after the European ones in 2015 and Vox in 2018. What happens after June 19, 2022 will have a fundamental reading of how the parties arrive at the 2023 election cyclewith municipal and regional elections in the first half of the year and general elections, predictably, in the second half. All this as a prelude to the european elections of 2024.

The question that many ask themselves is what is the range of alternative governments that the PP will propose as possible when it lands in 2023. If a new coalition with Voxthe PP may once again lose the moderate voters it has attracted since the fall of Ciudadanos and Paul Married. On the contrary, if he stages contempt against Vox, he can reopen his leaks to the right. Lastly, under the leadership of Alberto Nunez Feijoo on stage, a question that has been discarded in recent years is once again asked: is a government agreement between PP and PSOE? Although it seems an unlikely scenario (3% according to Predi), Andalusia is one of the laboratories with the least adverse incentives for a project of this type, with PP and PSOE located in central positions, Cs practically disappeared (1 seat according to Predi) and Vox taking a particularly radical direction. It will depend on how broad the menu that Feijóo wants to offer his voters for the next elections.

It is still early to talk about post-election headlines. However, the parties already think about them. PP and Vox will fight the battle of expectations. Both foresee better results, but will Moreno manage to add more than the leftist parties as a whole? Will Vox overcome its 18% electoral top in Castile and Leon? These numbers, although in the face of parliamentary sums they often mean little, serve as a catalyst for government negotiations and future elections.

In addition to PP and Vox, PSOE and Por Andalucía will fight to save the furniture. The PSOE for resisting with results similar to those of 2018 and Por Andalucía for not falling below 10% of votes. Those from Theresa Rodriguez who hope to get at least a couple of deputies and those of Ciudadanos who are struggling to get at least one representative. To this we must add possible although unlikely surprises such as the entry of provincial parties that follow in the wake of Emptied Spain as By Huelva either Jaen Deserves More.