ERC is the oldest Catalan party (like the PSOE in Spain) and seniority often comes with assets. In the first elections of 1977 the Republicans did not have it easy at all, but Heribert Barrera managed to keep the pavilion. Later, Carod-Rovira and Puigcercós made her return to the Generalitat with the tripartites of Pasqual Maragall and José Montilla. And now, with the leadership of Oriol Junqueras, ERC has in Pere Aragonès his first ‘president’ since Tarradellas, elected in exile and recognized by Suárez.
ERC counts, but sometimes it seems that he has trouble knowing how to count. It has 33 seats out of 135, but Aragonès, once elected, has the legislature on track since a motion of no confidence –which must be constructive and with an alternative candidate– is almost impossible. True, but governing –not only wearing out power– is also very difficult with only 33 deputies and without minimally stable pacts. That is why it was difficult to understand that –despite the differences and enmities– ERC allowed JxCat to break a pact of 65 seats, very close to an absolute majority. Yes, it was Junts –victim of his internal confusion– who left, but who is in charge must know how to add… and subtract.
And after the break with JxCat, only the approval of the budgets with the PSC would allow the legislature to continue with a certain normality. But this scenario –an ERC-PSC pact– seems more difficult today than a few weeks ago. ERC wants something like an almost adherence of the PSC to budgets already rigged before with the Commons. And the PSC demands that it be made clear that the two parties have the same strength (33 seats) and that ERC, which is the one that needs it, makes relevant gestures. As Pedro Sánchez –at no small cost– did by changing the crime of sedition and embezzlement. Illa demands the green light for large investments at El Prat airport and the tourist development of Tarragona.
In ERC there are things that surprise. After the last elections, instead of negotiating with JxCat first, the essential partner that had 32 seats, preferred to agree beforehand with the CUP, with only nine, to ‘couch’ Junts. In the end the pact came out, but the convoluted gestation did not generate confidence. And it all ended in abortion.
Now, with the 2023 budgets, ERC once again ignores the most relevant possible ally. First, he said that he preferred the budget extension to a pact with the PSC. Then, that the PSC had to redeem itself from its ‘sins’ (number 155). He later agreed with the Comuns, which have eight seats, and “radiated” that the pact was almost done and only the political will of the PSC was missing. Is it logical to set aside someone who has 33 seats and prioritize the pact with the Comuns, which –despite being a relevant group– only have eight?
Wouldn’t it have been natural to agree first with the PSC (or with JxCat if possible) and then with the junior partner? Of course, it will be said that this worked with Junts and that with the PSC there is a greater distance because he does not subscribe to self-determination. True, but Junts, as a result of the pact, was going to enter the Government and have strategic ‘conselleries’, such as the Economy, while the PSC does not want to have ‘consellers’ or high positions, and what it wants is for its influence to be recognized to decide relevant investments and for Catalonia to have budgets.
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Is it just an arithmetic problem? You don’t have to be a Nobel Prize winner to know that 33 deputies from the PSC (or 32 from Junts) weigh more than the eight of Jéssica Albiach. The problem is deeper. ERC and PSC are the first two Catalan parties, which will meet in the next municipal, legislative and regional (we’ll see in what order). And it is not easy in any country for the two competing parties to agree on budgets on the eve of elections. In Spain they have not been able to agree in four years nor the mandatory constitutional renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ).
But always there had been talk of the Catalan ‘seny’ and the political distance between the PSC and ERC, with ‘consellers’ who have jumped from one party to the other (Nadal, Elena, Ernest Maragall) is less than between the PSOE and the PP. Let’s hope that at last the ‘seny’ prevails. It would be frustrating if Pere Aragonès and Isabel Díaz Ayuso were the only two presidents without 2023 budgets.