Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the proportion of Britons who want to rejoin the EU has risen to its highest levels since 2016, according to a new survey.
Both the British and the Europeans are less likely to think that other countries will follow Brexit’s example, and the British are more optimistic about the bloc’s future, to the point of trusting the European Commission more than their own government.
Data from YouGov’s latest Brexit monitoring poll found that, excluding those who said they wouldn’t vote or didn’t know, 58.2% of people in Britain would now vote to reunite.
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The percentage is just a fraction below the 60% recorded in February this year, the highest figure since comparable data began in February 2012, and has risen more or less steadily from a post-referendum low of 47%. in early 2021.
In the majority of EU member states surveyed, support for the membership continuity it is now back to the levels it enjoyed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting a sharp rise in pro-European sentiment, YouGov figures showed.
And when asked if they would vote to stay in the EU or leave in a Brexit-style referendum, 62% of respondents in France and 63% in Italy, traditionally among the least enthusiastic EU member states , they said they would vote to stay.
In the rest of the EU, 87% of respondents in Spain they said last month that would choose to stayalong with 79% in Denmark, 70% in Sweden and 69% in Germany.
A record proportion of respondents in Britain it also believes that other countries are unlikely to follow suit: 42% said it was unlikely, up from 26% three years ago, while 40% said it was likely. below 58%.
EU member states showed a similar trend, with 45% of respondents in France saying they thought another exit from the EU was likely, compared with 55% in February 2020. In Germany, the figures were 36% (versus 42% during the pandemic) and in Denmark 29% (versus 41%).
Back
While sentiment towards EU membership has changed significantly in Britain since the referendum, a majority of respondents (51%) say they still believe Britain is unlikely to rejoin the EU at some point in the future.
However, that figure has been falling more or less steadily (it stood at 62% two years ago). And 29% of UK respondents said in April that they think the country is likely to rejoinup from 21% at the start of 2021. In the EU, people in Italy (61%) and France (54%) were less confident Britain would rejoin, while Denmark (43%) and Sweden (49%) they were more optimistic.
British confidence in the future of the EU has also increased markedly since the referendum. For the first, more British respondents (41%) said they were optimistic about the bloc’s prospects than pessimistic (36%).
And it all stems from the impact of the Brexit in the British economy. Most surprisingly, the data showed that respondents in Britain are now also more likely, albeit by a narrow margin, to say they trust the European Commission more (25%) than their own government (24%).
Trust in the UK government plummeted from a high of 40% in April 2021, just after the successful early launch of the Covid vaccine from AstraZeneca in the UK, and when lockdown restrictions were relaxed, while trust in the EU has increased since 2016.
Elections
Great Britain is like a sailing ship turning in the middle of the English Channel. Most of her passengers want her to go closer to the mainland and even the captain, the prime minister Rishi Sunakseems willing to make modest adjustments in its course.
But the strong winds and internal currents, where the separatism of Ireland and Scotland weighs (although also with waning effect) are moving the ship away from the continent. It will be necessary a change of direction much more decisive by a new captain, after a different crew comes on board next year (there are elections at the end of 2024).
Sunak, you may see the pragmatic case for improving economic relations with the single market, but you are also a more genuine Brexiter than your disgraced predecessor, Boris Johnson. And given the continued strength of the Brexiters in his party, and the bullying power of the right-wing Eurosceptic press, only small improvements can be expected under his tenure.
Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, on the other hand, who is relentlessly focused on winning next year’s general election, believes he can win back voters who were passionate about Brexit, but today they understand that he has been a disappointment.
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