While the leadership of the world and the top diplomatic corps were on one ear in New York, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization of the Russian population on Wednesday morning. In a televised speech, Putin accused “the West” of turning the Ukrainian people into “cannon fodder”. He will not attend the United Nations General Assembly this year, which is being held in New York this week.
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Awake Western politicians reacted with concern to the mobilization on Wednesday morning. According to Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Putin is “panic”. According to Rutte, this does not necessarily make him more dangerous. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Putin’s actions show “his plan in Ukraine is failing”. German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck called the partial mobilization “another bad and wrong move by Russia.” According to Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, Russia is trying to “escalate the war further”.
The threat of mobilization was already in the air on Tuesday, when it was announced that this week the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya will vote on joining Russia.
The referenda were also immediately rejected by Western world leaders. From New York, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called it a “mock referendum”, President Emmanuel Macron of France spoke of a “provocation”. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also saw in the plans “a new escalation” by Putin. The White House “unequivocally” rejected the referendum.
‘He who is silent is an accomplice’
The question now is whether these two developments will affect Russia’s position on the world stage and countries that have so far taken a neutral stance.
The Western anti-Russia coalition had gone to the United Nations just this week with a mission: how do we get more countries on our side in the effort to support Ukraine and isolate Russia? The Western diplomatic offensive must counterbalance the strikingly popular Russian narrative that Western sanctions have plunged poor countries into a triple crisis.
“It is not just Ukraine that is suffering from this war,” EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said on Tuesday after a meeting of EU ministers in New York. “The Ukrainian people are being bombarded with rockets and guns, the rest of the world is being hit by high energy prices, food scarcity and economic problems. The war affects everyone and we want to explain that here in New York.”
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A large part of the UN members, mainly poorer countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, prefer to remain neutral in the fight between Putin and the West. Russia knows this and is doing everything possible to keep as many countries as possible out of the western camp.
The West is now trying to gain ground with a fourfold strategy. With its own story. With, always an effective means, money. With more attention to the consequences of the war. And with, here and there, a few sharp words.
One after the other Western leader points out in New York that Putin has violated the UN Charter with his war. Leaving such a violation unpunished opens the way to a world where annexation wars are more common. It is therefore in everyone’s interest – including in the interest of countries that prefer to remain neutral – that international standards remain intact. The message to the leaders in the ‘Global South’ is clear: before you know it, it will be your country’s turn.
It is in everyone’s interest that international standards remain intact. Before you know it it’s your country’s turn
In addition, the West underlined that it does have an eye for problems outside Ukraine. The US and the EU, for example, convened a special meeting on the food crisis with the African Union in the margins of the General Assembly. The President of the European Council Charles Michel underlined at that summit that the EU wants to tackle the food shortage, which affects 200 million people, with a fund of almost 8 billion euros.
French President Emmanuel Macron lectured countries that want to remain neutral. “They are wrong, they are making a historic mistake,” he said. “Whoever remains silent today is, as it were, complicit in a new imperialism.”
‘Ukraine fatigue’
Immediately after the invasion in February, Western countries transferred the UN debate on Ukraine from the Security Council, where Russia has a veto, to the General Assembly, where each country has a vote. On the night of the attack, the bankruptcy of the V Council had been poignant: while the fighting had already started, the council was still sitting together to make a final appeal to Putin to refrain from violence. The meeting was led by Russia.
Initially, the General Assembly proceeded energetically. The war was condemned, Russia was expelled from the Human Rights Council. While the assembly’s actions had no direct effect on the war, its activism was striking for a 193 member body with few powers.
After only a few weeks, Western diplomats spoke of “Ukraine fatigue”. Many countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, although sympathetic to Ukraine, do not want to repeatedly act against Moscow. That has several reasons. A number of countries are still grateful to Russia for its support during the liberation struggle. Some countries have an economic interest in a good relationship with Russia and some feel downright intimidated by Moscow.
Whoever is against Moscow is not automatically for the West. “In many countries the impression was created that the West only cared about Ukraine and lost sight of the rest of the world’s problems,” said UN expert Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group. The western appearance was not always subtle either. “Some Western diplomats clamoredly demanded support for their Ukraine course, while ignoring the food and energy problems caused by the war.”
In the Global South, it is also bad that billions are going to Ukraine, while Western countries do not keep promises about climate. And poor countries have also not forgotten that the corona vaccines first went to the rich countries. “The Global South says: put your money where your mouth is,” said a diplomat.
Propaganda
Russia is feeding discontent with the West wherever it can. The food shortage, economic malaise and energy crisis facing the world have been caused by Western sanctions, Moscow claims time and again.
“We must constantly counteract Russia’s propaganda and its misleading narrative,” said EU foreign affairs chief Borrell. And he immediately busted a few Russian myths. The grain deal, which made the export of Ukrainian wheat possible again, has already led to a fall in the price. Two-thirds of Ukrainian exports ended up in poor countries and did not linger in the rich West. Western sanctions target Russia’s war economy. The EU in no way prevents the export of fertilizers from Russia to countries outside the Union.
“We will continue to explain to our partners in Asia, Africa and Latin America who the real culprit is and we will show that the European Union does not forget crises in other parts of the world. For us, it is not a choice between Ukraine and the rest of the world. That’s what we’re doing this week.”