Will Villarreal surprise Liverpool too? AOP
The most interesting game of the day
Wednesday’s most interesting match is on offer in the Champions League.
Villarreal, who has shocked both Juventus and Bayern to the Munich Choir in the playoffs this spring, is now attacking Liverpool in the semi-finals.
In principle, Liverpool is a really big pre-favorite in this area (success rates for the English are 1.15 to 5.50), but so was Bayern Munich last time.
Villarreal coach Unai Emery is a real wizard to lead his teams to euro success. Emeryn and his team have already won the Europa League four times (Seville 2013–2014, 2014–2015 and 2015–2016 and Villarreal 2020–2021). However, Emery has not yet conquered the Champions League through this time.
Measured by Euro success, Emery has more trophies won than her esteemed Liverpool counterpart Jürgen Kloppillawho has once won the Champions League (2018-2019 with Liverpool).
Liverpool will get into the match tonight due to their good line-up, as only the striker Roberto Firminon the game condition is not perfect.
Similarly, Villarreal’s biggest concern and question mark is the team’s star striker Gerard Morenon playing condition. On Wednesday morning, Moreno’s status is still 50/50, but I personally think the player will be parsed into the stitch needed by evening. Other missing in Villarreal are the defender Alberto Morenomidfielder Francis Coquelin as well as possibly a ranger Yeremy Pino.
Another factor influencing the balance of power is the fact that Liverpool have been in a significant slump in important matches recently. This game is already in its Fifth in two weeks. However, I will not make a very big adjustment to the team’s playing power, because the energy for such an important match has certainly been saved in some way.
Figuratively, Villarreal comes to the rescue in the game, thanks in no way to Gerard Moreno’s ability to press all over the field. If Moreno (and Pino) are okay, the team also has a pretty strong counter-threat. Liverpool will be active in the match (within the limits of energy) from start to finish, trying to take advantage of their home advantage.
In terms of power ratios, Liverpool has been set at 1.31 / 4.85 / 10.50 as a giant favorite. Veikkaus represents the market’s center line with its odds.
Against Bayern, I was Villarreal-positive, but now it’s harder for Anfield to take that position.
In terms of goals, Veikkaus takes a surprisingly low goal in the match, offering the highest odds of 1.88 on the market for more than 2.75 goals. Personally, I am also of the view, at least in part, that Villarreal will be able to defend its defense against Liverpool, at least to some extent. There is no real clue to the odds offered for this game.
Liverpool-Villarreal starts at 10pm.
The best bet of the day
Wednesday’s best long haul search can be found in Mestis’ first final match.
I assume that the Ketterä – K-Espoo game is less than Veikkaus’ estimates.
Agile is clearly an offensive team, and its matches are sometimes actual goal celebrations, but K-Espoo’s game has been based on perhaps the most defensive structure in Mestis throughout the season. The team is guaranteed not to change their operating idea in the finals. Although Ketterä is clearly stronger than Espoo in terms of (attack) material, I wouldn’t find it a huge surprise, even if Espoo smokes Ketterän’s attack.
In his semi-final series against FPS, Espoo was able to keep the matches very low – and thus as a team with a weaker attacking power. In the six matches of the series, only 3.83 goals were scored per game. Four of the six matches ended in a score of less than 5.5.
The agile and RoKi semi-finals series was more generous in nature and results, but even in that series, four of the seven matches ended in a result of less than 5.5 goals.
Some kind of reference on the nature of Ketterä’s and K-Espoo’s important matches and the number of goals will be available from the Finnish Cup final in November, which Ketterä won 2–1.
I now consider a odds of 1.66 offered for less than 5.5 goals to be a meager over-odds of an estimated 61 per cent. The first final of the mestis will start in Imatra at 6.30 pm.
The best case for football is under 2.5 goals for the Middlesbrough to Cardiff Championship match (odds 1.75). Middlesbrough – Cardiff starts at 9.45pm.
In the basketball NBA, the Golden State Warriors at home are worth considering a odds of 1.90 on the -9-point line against Denver. The game starts at 5.00.
Games of the day: –
The total balance of the year’s games for the year: 26/43/112%
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