In the league, today is the first Satakunta derby of the season.
Jesse Joensuu has scored two power points in 14 matches. Tomi Natri / All Over Press
The most interesting game of the day
As the most interesting match in the league, I pick the Satakunta derby, when league leader Lukko comes to Pori to show Äss the model of how to play.
The Aces are currently in tenth place in the table, so there is also a kind of David vs. Goliath mentality in the match. According to preliminary information, Isomäki is almost sold out, so Lukko will hardly score any points for Rauma today.
The moods of the teams correlate quite well with the series rankings. Lukko has won three of his previous four matches and Ässi has the opposite balance. Three of the four games have ended in defeat. However, it is worth noting that in terms of play, it was weaker only in its 0–2 loss against HIFK.
The exciting detail of the match beforehand is that Lukon Anrei Hakulinen leads the Liiga’s point exchange (7+9=16) and correspondingly the best scorer in Ässie Ian McCoshen can only be found in the same statistics at number 83! Somehow, in this context, it is also worth paying attention to the fact that a cult player who returned from Jokers to Äss for this season From Jesse Joensuu certainly expected more than two power points in the first 14 matches. Is it raining today?
In terms of formations, the teams will enter the game with their expected crews. Lukko is on the move with practically the best possible composition and Äss lacks attackers Roope Talaja and Feetu Knihti and defender Nikolas Matipalo.
In terms of power relations, even Friday night’s home drug doesn’t put Ässi even close to the favorite position here. My probability estimation field for the match is 27/24/49. In terms of betting, there is nothing interesting to suggest about the winning odds of the teams. Both teams – especially the Aces – have scored very few goals in their last matches. However, these derbies have quite often been characterized by a slightly higher than average number of goals due to the higher emotional charge of the matches.
I have a bit of a hunch that the nets might swing even now more often than the last matches of the teams, and the best bet choices would thus be found on the edge of abundant goals. As the best individual search, I raise the 1.98 odds offered over 4.5 goals.
Aces–Lukko starts at 18:30.
The best betting tip of the day
Friday’s best long-shots can be found in Mestis and snooker’s Northern Ireland Open. In snooker Mark Allen executed yesterday’s clue somewhat as expected after being beaten Xiao Guodong’s directly 4–0. Of course, the task was made easier by the fact that the Chinese was extremely bad yesterday. Today, in the quarterfinals, Mark Allen’s task becomes considerably more difficult when another Mark comes up against him, i.e Mark Williams.
Williams’ performance in this tournament can’t really be said for now; the resistances have been suitable and the profits routine. Mark Williams hasn’t performed any great performances or had to perform so far.
Allen’s performances have been marked by an almost mystical calm throughout the fall, and I see no reason why today would be any different. Allen won his “home tournament” last year, and there shouldn’t be any pressure on that either. In the multipliers, Markit is set to even book. Personally, I would be inclined to consider Allen as at least a 55% favorite here. Let’s continue playing the winning game. The Mark Allen–Mark Williams game is marked to start at 21:00.
In Mestiš, a “surprise” is sought for the HK Zemgale–Hermes match, i.e. a big goal, a result of more than 5.5 goals. Both teams belong to Mesti’s half with fewer goals. Both Zemgale’s and Hermes’ goal averages are 5.0 goals per game (Zemgale’s even less than a hair). Here, however, a couple of special factors favor, in my opinion, a match with more goals than averages. The first is that in Zemgale’s small rink there are more chances and faster than in matches played in Finland. This increases the number of goals in matches, at least in theory. In a way, this was indicated by the fact that when Peliitto, one of the lowest scorers in the series, visited Zemgale’s home cave, a total of 13 goals were scored in two matches. The reading also corresponded to well-established goal expectations. The second factor that could potentially increase the number of goals is the fact that Zemgale now has some kind of idea of Mestis’ level after six matches played in Finland, and the team no longer goes to “observe” at home, but presses the gas. I consider the 1.95 odds promised for over 5.5 goals to be too high. HK Zemgale–Hermes starts at 18:30.
Games of the day: Mark Allen-Mark Williams 1 (odds 1.84) and HK Zemgale-Hermes, over 5.5 goals (odds 1.96).
The total balance of the day’s games for the year: 58/95/110%
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.