Will a warm summer follow a wet spring? This is what the weather models predict | Weather news

The effect of climate change has been felt in our country in recent years. Belgium is warming up faster than the global average and that is also noticeable in our summers. They are now about 2.7 degrees warmer compared to the beginning of the measurements in Uccle in 1833. This is a trend that is observed all over Europe. Summer temperatures in the last three decades were the warmest in at least 2,000 years, according to the RMI.

Based on the statistics, we can assume that our summer will be warmer than usual. But how will the wet spring and El Niño affect the coming months?

It has been a wet spring in Belgium. In the past, gloomy and cool summers often followed. Sometimes these were accompanied by a lot of precipitation, other years it was just very dry. That wet spring is often still noticeable, especially at the beginning of summer. Because the soil is still moist, a lot of soil moisture evaporates. This creates clouds and showers. The evaporation also costs energy, so that the air can warm up less.

Can we forget about a hot summer? Not immediately. In 1983 we had to deal with the “gloomiest spring of the century in Uccle”, according to the website of the RMI. After this soaking wet spring, a dry summer followed. That year even had the driest August of the century. At that time, only 10.4 millimeters of precipitation fell in Uccle, while it was normally 70.9 millimeters. So there is still the chance that we will reach warm temperatures.

In recent weeks, there has been talk of a high probability of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which may be accompanied by new heat records worldwide. It means that the weather in many areas will be very different from what is normal. With us it will most likely have no demonstrable influence on our summer.

According to various weather models, it will be warmer than usual this summer. Eastern winds will bring summer temperatures of 25 degrees and more. Tropical temperatures of 30 degrees and more are less common. The wind would have to blow more from the south for that. It cannot be ruled out that the thermometer will occasionally touch 30 degrees during the summer months, but it does not seem that this will dominate the weather. Some weather models hint at a more southeasterly wind in August.

Because Belgium is slightly further away from the high-pressure areas above Scandinavia than, for example, the Netherlands, we have a greater chance of thunderstorms. Moist air from the Mediterranean could also regularly bring rain and thunderstorms. Normal precipitation amounts are also expected.

Monthly and seasonal forecasts come true 60 percent of the time; the five-day forecast comes true 90 percent of the time. We must therefore take the seasonal forecast for the summer with a grain of salt. The forecast for June will be more reliable and accurate than for August, which is further into the future.

Monthly and seasonal forecasts for the summer and winter are also more likely to come true than those for spring and autumn. The predictability of the atmosphere in the transitional seasons is smaller because cold and heat often alternate.

It is important to know that the seasonal models outline a rough trend for the monthly average air pressure, temperature and precipitation. It is therefore quite possible that we will get a cooler week or an extremely hot week. But we can cautiously expect that it will be a warm summer with occasional rain showers and some thunder.