Being only two is good news for Vox, but only in part. Staying out of the government, as until now, benefited them
A fundamental element in politics is power. In the elections, this power depends on the vote, on the seats and, once the chips have been distributed, on the weight that the parties have within their block. This last element, also called ‘bargaining power’, largely explains which is the most probable resulting government in Castilla y León. But before that, let’s review with Predi’s data what exactly is that most likely government.
The most up-to-date data, which takes into account the already published results of the elections, gives the coalition government of PP and Vox a probability of 83%, while the solo PP government with the external support of Vox it stands at 10%. The rest of the options reap even lower probability data. This confirms the trends that the prediction market had been estimating since the beginning of the campaign. That the government would depend on the seats of the two right-wing formations and that Vox would have more chances than any of the previous elections to sit in a regional executive. What is this about?
With the distribution of seats resulting from these elections – here it should be noted that our predictions obtained the lowest error together with two other surveys – Vox gathers a negotiating power of 29% within your block. This figure is the highest of the entire record of regional elections in communities with a majority of rights. It contrasts, therefore, with the weight of Vox in Galicia (0%), Murcia (fifteen%), Madrid (16%) and even Andalusia (twenty%). Even more so, it contrasts with the bargaining power that the far-rightists themselves won in the 2019 elections in Castile and Leon, 2%. If we look at this Vox power figure in comparative perspective, it can be considered that the extreme right-wingers have sufficient numbers to claim their share of the pie in the regional government from the popular, which would include the vice-presidency for the leader of Vox in this territory, Juan Garcia-Gallardo.
Without the stumbling block of Cs
The growth in power of Vox is not the only reason why those of Vox are closer than ever to a government. One of the obstacles that prevented its entry is that there was another more moderate party, citizens, large enough to request that Vox stay out of the coalition. This party has gone from being the third party in Castilla y León to harvesting a single deputy, the same ones that United We Can or the provincialist party By Avila. Today it is no longer key to the formation of a government and only popular and far-rightists sit at the table.
Being only two is good news for Vox, but only in part. Citizens was a stumbling block for their entry, yes, but also the perfect excuse to stay out. If something teaches keep an eye on your ultras brothers from Europeis that staying out of government allows them to recreate themselves as ‘outsiders’not to disappoint in the management and to differentiate itself from the PP and Ciudadanos by picking up the discontent that they have left in their wake.
With Ciudadanos erased from the pact map, it would be unjustifiable for its voters if Vox did not claim to enter the Government in order to execute the measures they propose. Whether by obligation or by a decided change of strategy, all the information indicates that Vox will bet everything this time to enter the Executive, especially when shortly after knowing the provisional results, Santiago Abascal came out to say that Garcia-Gallardo he was “putting on the face of a vice president.”
escape routes
The ball is on the roof of the famous corner of Calle Génova in Madrid. His margin of action is minimal. It is true that there are two unlikely escape routes. The first is to force the repeat elections. Option that, of all all, is not recommended after the very tight results that it obtained Alfonso Fernandez Manueco. If his downward trend had continued, moreover, according to Predi’s data, it would not have taken him long to lose the majority. Nothing suggests that the PP is willing to roll the dice again.
The other option is also unimaginable. It consists of the PP and PSOE reaching some type of agreement by which the Vox attorneys are not necessary. Here, to the calculations of the PP are added those of the PSOE, which would go in to get the chestnuts out of Paul Married of the embers If the support was granted by the PSOE ‘for nothing’with the aim that Vox does not enter the Government, nothing would prevent the PP from later agreeing to each measure with Vox and, therefore, the PSOE coming out of this equation damaged.
counterproductive swerve
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If the PSOE were to agree on a government with the PP, either through agreed measures or a coalition government, both parties would risk leaving a wide space at each of their extremes so that both Vox and leftist formations (state or provincial) could grow at their expense. The most moderate positions within the PP can fantasize about this formula because the rest of the options imply high costs, but nothing suggests that the PSOE is willing to give a strategic swerve of this caliber in an election in which his role was different.
In the following weeks, it is likely that we will witness interventions that question the leadership of Casado and internal and media fuss against the entry of Vox (probably from Galicia Y Andalusia), but with Predi’s data and the reasons given by comparative experience, everything suggests that Castile and Leon It will be Vox’s gateway to the executive structure of the State. The countdown begins for the elections in Andalusia.