Why the crystal ball doesn’t work

Entrance and exit to the Olympic Park in Munich

Everything should be better with PotAS. But predicting success remains difficult, as the example of the basketball world champions shows. (dpa / picture alliance / CHROMORANGE)

The “PotAS” analysis system certified that athletics had the highest medal potential and basketball the lowest. In practice, exactly the opposite happened: the track and field athletes came away empty-handed at the World Cup in Budapest, while the basketball players won the title at the World Cup in Asia and bronze at the European Championships.

“Basically, we don’t really take this system seriously,” said Andreas Michelmann, President of the German Handball Federation (DHB) in the Dlf. He would especially feel sorry for the people who have to deal intensively with the system, the 122 attributes and the many forms. “I really feel sorry for them, no matter what sport,” said Michelmann. For him it is clear: “Looking into the crystal ball doesn’t really work.”

“Otherwise basketball wouldn’t have ended up in 26th place and athletics in first place. It couldn’t be any worse than that. That seems to have been a lot of nonsense.”

Point of culture of distrust

The classification by the potential analysis system has direct financial consequences for the associations. “PotAS” is part of the elite sports reform, under which federal funding will in future be distributed more based on expectations of success and medal chances. “PotAS” was also introduced in response to criticism from the Federal Audit Office. He criticized the current sports funding as incomprehensible and the influence of the DOSB as being too great.

“I was very skeptical about it from the start,” said the sports official. “If the Federal Audit Office dictates what sport should do, then we are back to the point of this culture of mistrust,” he said. “The sports are actually much more complex than anyone from the Federal Audit Office could possibly imagine.”

The Federal Audit Office is not allowed to specify competitive sports

It’s okay to be measured based on performance and if it’s about satisfying the Federal Audit Office, then you have to do that. “But that doesn’t have much to do with competitive sport,” said the 63-year-old. “I’m very much in favor of accountability. The only question is whether that’s the right way.”

The right way is not to need a culture of mistrust. “If you’re successful, you’ve done everything right. Transparency or transparency,” he said.

In order to achieve success, you have to invest first if you want to achieve returns in the end, demanded Michelmann in the Dlf. It cannot be the way to just concentrate and then save resources again.

The handball official explained that in women’s handball they found out that they had to take different paths. Since the German clubs are not as financially strong as the men’s, they need to concentrate better on the female handball players in order to develop them. You can’t expect so much from the clubs there. In general, in Germany, much more emphasis must be placed on development and training and not too much on short-term success. He also called for a social appreciation of the coaching profession. Above all, he is demanding an academicization of the coaching profession. “In the beginning there has to be the political will to want this,” said Michelmann.

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