Almost a year after meeting face to face for the first time since their respective coming to power, the president of USA, Joe Bidenand its Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, held a personal meeting again this Wednesday during the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit being held in San Francisco. The meeting, which is estimated to last several hours and after which there will be no joint statement, has taken place over several months of intense diplomatic negotiations after exacerbation of tensions in the last year, taking the bilateral relationship to its lowest point since ties were reestablished in 1979.
The meeting comes at a deteriorated geopolitical moment, with USA and China on opposite sides in the two great open war conflicts: the war of Russia in Ukraine and of Israel in Loop. Although expectations are lowered and great specific advances are not predicted, some achievements are expected. And its mere celebration is essential for the two leaders. Biden faces it as an effort to “stabilize relations” and Xi has said that “there are a thousand reasons to make relations better and none to make them worse.”
These are seven keys to the meeting.
The main concrete achievement that could come out of the summit, and that the US seeks, is for the two powers to reestablish the military communications direct, that Beijing almost completely interrupted last summer in response to the visit of the then president of the Lower House, the Democrat Nancy Pelosito Taiwan.
This direct line of communication is considered essential to prevent potential episodes of tension in spaces such as the south china sea or the Taiwan Strait escalate or lead to a conflict. And that importance grows as the US is also increasing its security alliances in the region, from with Australia to Philippines.
On Monday, Biden, when talking about what would make him consider the summit a success, mentioned along with “the return to a normal path of relations.” and being able to “pick up the phone and call each other when there is a crisis” (something they haven’t done in the last 12 months). “Ensure that our armies maintain contact with each other,” he stressed.
In addition to potential advances in the field of collaboration in the fight against climate change It is anticipated that Biden and Xi will be able to reach an agreement on the fentanylthe powerful central synthetic opioid in epidemic addiction that consumes the US, where 150 people die a day from overdose of opiates.
According to US media reports citing anonymous sources, Beijing would agree to intensify the persecution of chemical companies that produce the drug and its precursors. In exchange the US would raise sanctions that has imposed on the Forensic Science Institution, part of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, pointed out by Washington for Human Rights violations such as the repression of the Uyghurs and who is prohibited from selling technology.
Another step that Washington considers fundamental and that it cherishes is to find a way for China to commit to not applying Artificial intelligence (AI) in the control and operation systems of Nuclear weapons. It would be a way to drive a wedge into negotiations on the Chinese atomic arsenal, which Beijing refuses to maintain given the inferiority of its arsenal compared to that of the United States and Russia. Although still atomic weapons deployed are a third of those in Washington and Moscow that arsenal has grown at enormous speed, according to the Pentagon until we have 500 strategic weapons that are expected to double by 2030.
The economy It is central to the relationship between the two powers and both Biden and Xi are aware of their interdependence, so the key now is to manage the important economic relationship (with $760 billion in 2022). bilateral trade and 1.8 trillion in investments) even at this time of competition intensified.
tierSome of the tensions in this field have risen. Biden has maintained tariffs that she imposed donald trump in almost 370,000 million dollars in imports and has also added export restrictions to China technology advanced that limits, for example, the semiconductors more developed countries that Beijing needs to advance in AI. In fact, one day after the meeting, new restrictions will come into force.
China, for its part, continues to control vital elements for the technology industry such as rare materials. And although the US is seeking to break its dependence by achieving trade agreements and production with other countries, including nations in the region such as India either Vietnam, China remains a fundamental supplier to these countries. Beijing is also expanding its trade with other nations and in 2022 the trade it had with developing nations was already greater than what it had with the US, Europe and Japan combined.
For the two countries, in any case, not decoupling is crucial. And at an event earlier this month Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, said: “A complete separation of our economies or an approach in which countries including those in the Indo-Pacific are forced to take sides would have significant negative global repercussions. “We have no interest in a world divided like this and its disastrous effects.”
The island continues to be one of the main points of tension between the two powers and will probably once again be the protagonist of a tense exchange between the two leaders. Already in November last year, Xi reminded Biden that Taiwan “is at the core of Chuna’s interests, it is the touchstone of bilateral relations and the first Red line “that should not be crossed.”
With presidential election there in January, Beijing seeks to get Biden to reaffirm the “one China” policy; from the USA. He will intensify pressure over comments Biden has made assuring that he would defend Taiwan in the event of a invasion or “unprecedented attacks.” Biden, for his part, wants to ensure that there will be no Chinese interference.
Biden and Xi have placed their countries on two opposing sides in the ukrainian war and nothing indicates that there will be any change or alteration regarding that conflict. But when it comes to the war opened by Israel in Gaza after the attacks of Hamas On October 7, Biden arrives at the meeting with the aim of pressuring Xi to use his influence and good economic and diplomatic relations with Iran to try to ensure that Tehran, one of the main financiers of Hamas or Hezbollahdoes not collaborate in the regional extension of the conflict.
For both Biden and Xi, the meeting has a strong component of national politics. The first is a year away from the elections in which he seeks re-election weighed down by low voter turnout rates. popularity. It does not get the population to shake off the feeling of the yoke of inflation despite the good performance of the economy and needs to strengthen it even more, for which the stability of the relationship with China is essential.
At the same time, it has to measure its actions to stop the Republican candidates’ accusations of having a soft hand with Beijing. And the agreement on fentanyl could help him on an issue that conservatives have also made central to the campaign.
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For Xi, meanwhile, the return after six years to the US and the central role he will have in San Francisco also plays an important image role towards his own population. The strongest leader in decades in China is experiencing his most complicated moment in his 11 years in power, as shown by street protests over the zero policy covid.
The growth of the Chinese economy has slowed and this year it is missing the 5% goal, already the lowest in decades. The shocks of a real estate crisisthe shot youth unemployment and a leak investments. That is why the meeting he is going to have with directors of large companies is also essential, trying to revitalize the image of China as a business destination.