Why expensive? Driving costs us less than in the 1970s and 1980s. And expensive gasoline is needed because of climate change | Opinion

We act as if petrol is no longer affordable, so excise taxes had to be lowered. But expensive petrol is actually necessary to adjust our behaviour, says Vincent van der Vinne. He is a historian specializing in mobility.

Complaining about fuel costs is common. But is it right? For this we can look at the price of petrol, the average use of a car (a distance of 15,000 kilometers per year) and the modal income. In the 1970s and the first half of the 1980s, this distance required 5.5 to 7.4 percent of the average income. This decreased from the mid-1980s to about 4 percent in 2020.

If we now assume a suggested retail price of 2 euros for petrol, we arrive at less than 5 percent of the average income. That is less than in the 1970s and 1980s. Even at a suggested retail price of 2.50 euros, we arrive at 6.2 percent, comparable to the first half of the eighties.

When the cabinet fell for it

Cars and automobility became cheaper and cheaper. Since 1990, the number of cars has increased by about 3.5 million and has increased by almost 50 percent per thousand inhabitants. More cars meant higher CO2 emissions. To prevent this, a centre-right cabinet in 1989 wanted to severely limit travel expenses, increase fuel taxes and introduce a kilometer charge.

The cabinet fell for these plans and there are now almost nine million cars. But the basis for the strongly increased car mobility, the abundantly available oil, will disappear as a result of climate change.

We need to consume much less oil

Due to climate change, measures must be taken. By 2030, the use of oil should be halved and that of conventional cars sharply reduced. We won’t be able to do that with the sale of electric cars (which also put a strain on the climate). Not replacing cars, but change must be our response to the climate crisis. Progressively rising car costs ensure a softer landing in our society and accelerate processes of change.

Rising car costs hurt, especially now. Lower income groups, the last who could afford a car, will be the first to give it up.

But even in the 1970s and 1980s, not ‘everyone’ had a car. Many traveled by bicycle, moped or public transport. At the time, ‘transport poverty’ was unknown. They either had a car or they didn’t. But the structure of our country has changed due to the increasing car mobility. It was increasingly geared to mass car use and we became car dependent. We now find it normal that ‘everyone’ has a car, partly because it is ‘necessary’. Those who do not have a car are ascribed ‘transport poverty’.

Mitigating Consequences

Increasing the travel allowance and lower fuel taxes keep us dependent on the car. It delays necessary changes in the spatial planning of our country, in society and in mobility. The harder we hold on to the achievements achieved, the harder the confrontation will be with the changing climate. We cannot avoid measures to combat this, we can only try to mitigate the consequences for lower income groups in time. For example, through more working from home, shorter commuting distances, deconcentration of facilities and more use of bicycles and public transport.

On average, higher income groups benefit the most from tax measures; they are also the ones with the largest carbon footprint. Progressively rising car costs can give direction to their car ownership and car use. Until 2030, the transition from the conventional car to the electric car must mainly come from these income groups. Lower car costs will slow this transition.

Reducing fuel taxes and increasing travel allowances ensure that the current situation is maintained, while changes are on the way and we must act accordingly.

Vincent van der Vinne (1964) studied history at the University of Nijmegen. He obtained his doctorate for a study into the rise of the car and wrote the book ‘125 jaar car in Nederland. The trusted car on the way back’.