The upcoming transfer of Frans Timmermans to The Hague reinforces the feeling in Brussels that the end of a political era is approaching: it is only a year before new elections and he is already the third European Commissioner to leave. Moreover, his switch has created a nice political summer puzzle: who will succeed him? This is important for the green agenda of Europe and for the influence of the Netherlands in Brussels.
Timmermans leaves a not inconsiderable hole in the European Commission, because he combined no fewer than three tasks. He ran one of the most important portfolios: climate. Opposition to his green agenda has swelled rapidly in recent months. The Christian Democrats in the European Parliament had seen a new party in the Netherlands clamp down on the CDA and wanted to prevent a repetition on a European scale. The result was a tough political battle over the Nature Restoration Act, which was sometimes played to the man. A successor must guard that heavy portfolio in an unfavorable political climate, although an important part of the legislation has now been secured.
Climate negotiator
Read also: His ego can sometimes get in the way of Timmermans
Timmermans was also the EU’s climate negotiator at major UN climate conferences. He systematically built up an international network of relations and often traveled for weeks to prepare climate negotiations. He praised his good relations with the Chinese negotiators and with the American John Kerry. He also forged a close relationship with Mia Mottley, the Prime Minister of Barbados, an influential voice in the global debate. The EU must therefore also look for a new climate negotiator, just before an important summit in Dubai.
And Timmermans is First Vice President of the Commission. With the departure of Timmermans, chairman Ursula von der Leyen may lose her second vice in a short time. Margrethe Verstager, European Commissioner for Competition, recently announced that she is in the race to become director of the European Investment Bank. Earlier this spring, Bulgarian Mariya Gabriel (Innovation) left for national politics.
Nature Restoration Act
The fierce battle for the Nature Restoration Act this spring was the first signal that elections are imminent and the Von der Leyen Commission is entering its final months. Although there are still some huge jobs on the table, such as migration and accession negotiations with Ukraine, many new initiatives are no longer expected.
In Brussels, there was also speculation about the future of von der Leyen himself. She kept popping up in the rumor about a new NATO chief, while also claiming she could be up for a second term as Commission president.
The New Carpenters
Who will be the new Timmermans? So that’s a simple question with a layered answer. For now, everything will remain the same for a while. A European Commissioner must stop working if he or she starts campaigning. Formally, Timmermans can therefore remain in office until his appointment as party leader of the combination of PvdA and GroenLinks, scheduled for the end of August. Then there must be a successor, possibly a sitting European Commissioner who moves on.
In theory, a Commissioner can be released to campaign and return if he fails, but Timmermans’ departure is final. He is running for prime minister, but will in any case be a member of parliament.
The Netherlands may therefore nominate a new Commissioner. This is a serious political appointment and therefore a matter for the cabinet. Given the outgoing status, it is conceivable that the coalition parties will have to consult with part of the opposition.
Von der Leyen herself has a lot of influence on the composition of her team. She usually insists that a country nominate both a man and a woman. Who is nominated depends on the position that becomes available. The Netherlands will not settle for a light post, but it is not likely that the Netherlands will again be able to provide a first vice president with a whopper of a portfolio after the departure of Timmermans.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper on July 24, 2023.