EL PERIÓDICO offers this Sunday, July 9, a new update of the Predilect prediction market to know the evolution of the vote, seat and turnout estimates in the general elections on July 23. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, Predilect is the only mechanism that makes it possible to follow the latest electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.
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In this new update, which includes the effects of the early stages of the electoral campaign, there have been no relevant variations with respect to the previous prediction. The PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo He retains a large advantage in the lead and would win the elections comfortably, but the sum with Vox continues to be slightly below the absolute majority. The PSOE of Pedro Sanchez It would go backwards significantly, but it could try to articulate a majority with the same partners on which it has relied during this legislature. The extreme right of Santiago Abascal remains ahead of the coalition of Yolanda Diaz in their struggle to maintain the condition of a third political force, but the difference between the two narrows.
The PP would win the elections with the 34.1% of the votes and leads the PSOE by 4.8 points, which would remain in the 29.29% of the votes. Regarding the previous prediction, both the popular and the socialist have risen one tenth each, so the distance between the two remains in the last 24 hours. Just three tenths separate Vox, which would achieve the 13.04% of the ballots, a record very similar to yesterday’s, and Sumar, who would get the 13.35%also a percentage similar to that of the previous day.
The electoral race keeps two other battles very close: CKD and togetherseparated by less than one tenth in favor of the postconvergents, and GNP and EH Bilduwhose distance is less than one tenth in favor of the peneuvistas.
The following graph shows the evolution of the evolution of the percentage of vote of each political force since the beginning of the series of predictions.
Converting these percentages into seats in Congress, there have been no variations either. Feijóo would get 135 seats (today he is 89) and Sánchez would stay with 105 deputies (now has 120). Both the PP and the PSOE repeat their results from yesterday. Abascal would achieve 36 seats (today he has 52), the same as in the previous prediction, and Díaz would get 35 deputies (now 35), also the same as 24 hours ago. ERC remains with 10 seats and Junts continues with 9 deputies. The other pulse continues as tied as yesterday: PNV and EH Bildu would collect 6 seats each. The remaining 8 parliamentarians would be distributed among other formations.
The following graph shows the evolution of the evolution of seats of each political force since the beginning of the series of predictions.
With these results, the right-wing bloc made up of PP and Vox would add 171 seats, the same as the day before, so it would remain five deputies of the absolute majority (176) and would need the support or abstention of at least a third partner to ensure the investiture. The current government coalition, PSOE and Sumar, would achieve 140 seatsalso the same record as yesterday, which would force Sánchez to agree, at least, with all the partners who supported him in his first investiture and with Junts per Catalunya to try to neutralize the sum of Feijóo and Abascal.
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The stake It is the great unknown of these atypical elections in the middle of summer vacations and this data may be key to the expectations of each block. Predilect estimates that they will vote on 70.84% of the census, one tenth less than yesterday and 4.6 points more in the last elections, when the worst mobilization record was obtained in general elections (66.23%). The participation record was set in 1982, with 79.97% in the first elections won by Felipe González.
After the upturn in the political map that the municipal and regional elections meant, Sánchez and Feijóo will wage the definitive battle for the hegemony of the electoral board on 23-J. The PP sails with the wind in favor of the surveys and the effect of his recent success at the polls, while the PSOE clings to the social and economic management of the Government and the possible wear and tear that the popular may suffer due to their pacts with Vox, in addition to the impact, still uncertain, that the integration of all the space to its left may have in the new Sumar brand. The sum of the left and right blocks It will undoubtedly be the determining factor on election night.