EL PERIÓDICO offers this Tuesday, July 4, a new update of the Predilect prediction market to know the evolution of the vote, seat and turnout estimates in the general elections on July 23. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, Predilect is the only mechanism that makes it possible to follow the latest electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.
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In this new update, which reflects the effects of the first public recognition of Alberto Núñez Feijóo that he will govern with Vox if he needs their votes, in the last 24 hours the ultras have taken the seat from the PP that it took from him the day before, but the right-wing bloc still has not reached a sufficient majority to ensure governability. The popular ones maintain a comfortable advantage in the lead and would win the elections comfortably, although the sum with Vox continues slightly below the absolute majority. The PSOE of Pedro Sanchez It would go backwards significantly, but it could try to articulate a majority with the same partners on which it has relied during this legislature. The extreme right of Santiago Abascalcontinues ahead of Sumar, the coalition of Yolanda Diazin its struggle to maintain the status of third political force.
The PP would win the elections with the 33.77% of the votes and leads the PSOE by 5.3 points, which would remain in the 28.46% of the votes. With respect to the previous prediction, both the popular and the socialists remain in very similar records, so the distance between them has not changed in the last 24 hours. For its part, Vox would achieve the 13.81% of the ballots, practically the same as yesterday, and Sumar would obtain the 13.55%the same percentage as the previous day.
The electoral race keeps two other battles very close: CKD and togetherseparated by less than one tenth in favor of the postconvergents, and GNP and EH Bilduwhose distance is also less than one tenth in favor of the peneuvistas.
The following graph shows the evolution of the evolution of the percentage of vote of each political force since the beginning of the series of predictions.
Converting these percentages into seats in Congress, there have been no variations either. Feijóo would get 133 seats (today he is 89) and Sánchez would stay with 102 deputies (now has 120). While the PP has lost a parliamentarian, the PSOE remains in the same register as yesterday. Abascal would achieve 39 seats (today he has 52), one more than in the previous prediction, and Díaz would get 36 deputies (now has 35), the same as 24 hours ago. The other two pulses are still as tied as yesterday: Junts and ERC would reap 10 seats each, and PNV and EH Bildu would collect 6 deputies each. The remaining 8 parliamentarians would be distributed among other formations.
The following graph shows the evolution of the evolution of seats of each political force since the beginning of the series of predictions.
With these results, the right-wing bloc made up of PP and Vox would add 172 seats, so it would remain four deputies of the absolute majority (176). The current government coalition, PSOE and Sumar, would achieve 138 seatswhich would force Sánchez to agree, at least, with all the partners who supported him in his first investiture and with Junts per Catalunya to try to neutralize the sum of Feijóo and Abascal.
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The stake It is the great unknown of these atypical elections in the middle of summer vacations and this data may be key to the expectations of each block. Predilect estimates that they will vote on 70.97% of the census, six tenths more than in the previous prediction and 4.7 points more in the last elections, when the worst mobilization record was obtained in general elections (66.23%). The participation record was set in 1982, with 79.97% in the first elections won by Felipe González.
After the upturn in the political map that the municipal and regional elections meant, Sánchez and Feijóo will wage the definitive battle for the hegemony of the electoral board on 23-J. The PP sails with the wind in favor of the surveys and the effect of his recent success at the polls, while the PSOE clings to the social and economic management of the Government and the possible wear and tear that the popular may suffer due to their pacts with Vox, in addition to the impact, still uncertain, that the integration of all the space to its left may have in the new Sumar brand. The sum of the left and right blocks It will undoubtedly be the determining factor on election night.