With the regional elections in Castilla y León underway, EL PERIÓDICO updates this Sunday for the last time the Predi prediction market to learn about the evolution of estimate of seats and the most likely form of government. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, this electoral tool works like a stock market and is based on the transactions of a remarkable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
In addition, Predi is the only mechanism that allows you to follow the last minute of electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition on publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.
WHAT IS A PREDICTION MARKET?
In the last update, this Sunday, February 13, there have been no changes in the last 24 hours and the PP It is still very far from the absolute majority that it was looking for with this electoral advance, while the possible sum with Vox is still very tight. With the elections already underway, By Avila Y Union of the Leonese People (UPL) are the closest to losing a parliamentarian. However, Spain Emptied and the PSOE They are the forces that are closest to winning a prosecutor in the regional Parliament.
The PP reaches the elections with 11 seats from the absolute majority (fixed at 41 attorneys) and the candidate Alfonso Fernandez Manueco I would need Vox to revalidate the presidency of the Castilla and leon meeting. But that right-wing majority begins to falter, since popular and ultras would now add 42 deputies, when at the beginning of the series of predictions they reached 45.
As for the left, the PSOE of Luis Tudanca, who won the 2019 elections, would go back significantly and would have no chance of forming an alternative government. However, the advantage of the PP over the PSOE in this series of predictions has fallen from 8 to 2 deputies throughout the election campaign.
The PP leads the predictions with 30 seats (now it has 29), the same as yesterday, so it is 11 deputies from the absolute majority. That bar could be exceeded, in a tight way, with the 12 MPs that Predi predicts to Vox (today it has 1), the same as in the previous prediction.
If the extreme right-wingers would be the force that would grow the most in the Cortes of Castilla y León, the one that would suffer the greatest setback would be Ciudadanos, which one more day continues with 1 attorney (now he is 12). The PSOE would achieve 28 seats (today it has 35), the same as yesterday, and its partner in the central government, United We Can, would obtain 3 deputies (now he has 2), also the same as yesterday.
The hemicycle would be completed with UPL, which would achieve 3 MPs (now it has 1), the same record as yesterday, and the irruption of the party Spain Emptiedwhich in its first electoral bid would be awarded 3 procurators, also the same harvest as yesterday. Other provincial brand, By Avilawhich in 2019 won 1 representative, would manage to retain it and remain in the regional Parliament.
With this distribution of seats, Mañueco would have no margin to avoid Vox, since a hypothetical alliance with Spain Emptied, UPL, citizens Y By Avila it would remain three deputies from the absolute majority. In any case, this equation would be very complex because, to begin with, the orange formation maintains that it will not re-invest the PP candidate after being expelled from the regional Executive.
With these predictions, the most likely post-election scenario is that Mañueco continues to lead the regional government, and all possible formulas rise compared to yesterday. The options that you do with Vox as parliamentary partner have grown two and a half points in the last 24 hours and are in the 40.06%while the options that PP and Vox govern in coalition They have also added two points and are in the 33.24%although they had reached close to 50% during the week.
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The third possibility predicted by Predi is no longer that the PP obtains absolute majorityoption that loses another three tenths since yesterday (9.24%), but it is once again that the socialist Tudanca is president. However, the probabilities of this scenario have fallen five points in the last 24 hours and remain in the 9.47%.