EL PERIÓDICO and Predi update the expectations of seats and the most probable government formula, according to experts
The campaign for the regional elections in Castilla y León is already underway and EL PERIÓDICO updates the Predi prediction market to learn about the evolution of estimate of seats and the most likely form of government. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, this electoral tool works like a stock market and is based on the transactions of a remarkable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
This is the only mechanism that will make it possible to follow the last minute of electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election day, given the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections.
WHAT IS A PREDICTION MARKET?
In the last update, this Sunday, January 30, the PSOE has snatched from PP the seat that he recovered yesterday and manages to add a deputy for the first time in the entire series of predictions. But the socialists are, along with United We Can, who are closest to losing a parliamentarian. However, Union of the Leonese People (UPL) and Spain Emptied they are the forces that are closest to winning a representative in the regional courts.
All in all, the PP maintains a comfortable advantage to win the elections and revalidate the presidency of the Castilla and leon meetingin the hands of the popular Alfonso Fernandez Manueco, but it would not reach the absolute majority (set at 41 attorneys) and would need the help of other partners to remain in power. The extreme right of Vox It would be the one with the most numbers. As for the left, the PSOE of Luis Tudanca, which won the 2019 elections, would go back significantly and would have no chance of forming an alternative government.
The PP leads the predictions with 34 seats (now he has 29), one less than yesterday, so he is once again seven deputies short of the absolute majority. That bar could be exceeded with the 10 MPs that Predi predicts to Vox (today it has 1), the same as in the previous prediction.
If the extreme right-wingers would be the force that would grow the most in the Cortes of Castilla y León, the one that would suffer the greatest setback would be Ciudadanos, which one more day continues with 1 attorney (now he is 12). One more day, the PSOE would achieve 28 seats (today it has 35), one more than yesterday, and its partner in the central government, United We Can, would obtain 3 deputies (now has 2), the same as yesterday.
The hemicycle would be completed with UPL, which would achieve 2 MPs (now it has 1), the same registration as yesterday, and the irruption of the party Spain Emptied, which in its first electoral bid would be awarded 3 procuratorsalso same as yesterday. From the regional Parliament would come By Avila, which in 2019 was made with 1 representative.
With this distribution of seats, Mañueco would have no margin to avoid Vox, since a complex alliance with Spain Emptied, UPL Y cs he would stay one deputy from the absolute majority. In any case, this equation would be very complex because, to begin with, the orange formation maintains that it will not re-invest the PP candidate after being expelled from the regional Executive.
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With these predictions, the most likely post-election scenario is that Mañueco will continue to lead the regional government and the options that he will do so have skyrocketed with Vox as parliamentary partner (46.23%, five points more than yesterday). More than 12 points away are now the options that PP and Vox govern in coalition, which continue to fall (34.39%, one and a half points less than yesterday). As Mañueco moves away from the absolute majority, the third possibility predicted by Predi, that the PP obtains absolute majority, fell three points in 24 hours (16.97%). Any other scenario that does not include the popular barely exceeds 1% probability.