THE NEWSPAPER offers today Tuesday May 23 a new update of the ‘Predilect’ prediction market to know the evolution of the vote estimate in the municipal elections in badalona. The result of a research project of the University of Zurichthis electoral tool works as a stock market and is based on the transactions of a remarkable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
WHAT IS A PREDICTIONS MARKET?badalona He promises to continue giving people talk. After a mandate with motion of censurethe polls will decide again if Xavier Garcia Albiol (PP) has a new opportunity, especially if he manages to reach a absolute majority (14 councilors out of 27), still unprecedented for him, who could unseat the current quadripartite government (PSC, ERC, ‘Comuns’ and Junts) led by the socialist Ruben Guijarro.
It will be the ninth time that the controversial leader of the PP attends in a town that has been governed by four different mayors in 10 years after two motions of censure and one resignation. The current and multicolored executive, with the external support of guanyemhas managed to prosper with a good harmony between the partners despite the obstacles typical of internal disputes such as those that have marked the local future of CKDformerly a member of guanyem of the mayor Dolors Sabater, in turn spokesperson for the CUP in it Parliament.
In this latest update, the PP of Albiol is kept in a 66.58% of probabilities of recovering the mayoralty of Badalona. CKDmeanwhile, retains the second position with a 22.82% of probabilities of recovering the staff of command from Badalona, above the PSC (7.23%), formation now in charge of the mayor’s office. The probabilities that another formation obtained the mayoralty are reduced to 3.37%.
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Albiol has been in the lead since this series of predictions began, adding at this point about 20 more points than in early March. In addition, CKD has always been above PSCalthough both came to be, at the end of March, practically tied about 21%which means that the Socialists have dropped more than 10 points since then.
‘Predilect’ is the only mechanism that allows you to follow the last minute of electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.