With the regional election campaign in Andalusia underway, EL PERIÓDICO offers a new daily update of the Predi prediction market to learn about the evolution of estimate of seats and the most likely form of government. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, this electoral tool works like a stock market and is based on the transactions of a remarkable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
In addition, Predi is the only mechanism that allows you to follow the last minute of electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition of publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.
WHAT IS A PREDICTION MARKET?
In the last update, this Monday June 6, the PP has lost a seat in the last 24 hours, although it maintains a comfortable advantage over the PSOE. The current president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juanma Morenowould comfortably win the elections, but would need the support or abstention of the Socialists or the extreme right of Vox to be reinvested.
The popular ones are 11 seats away from the absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament, set at 55 deputies, and would obtain more representation than the sum of the entire left. Vox and the PSOE are the parties that are closest to losing a seat, while Ciudadanos is the force that is closest to winning a deputy. The first candidates debatethis Monday on RTVE, may be key to consolidating or altering trends.
The PSOE of John Swords would worsen its 2018 result despite the collapse of citizens and the retreat of the alternative left, divided in these elections into two brands: Through Andalusia Y Forward Andalusia. The orange disaster shoots the other two right, the PP and Vox. The ultras would almost double their representation in the autonomous community for which they burst onto the Spanish political map four years ago.
The PP leads the predictions with 44 seats (today it has 26), one less than in the previous prediction, 11 from the absolute majority and 12 above the PSOE. After a legislature ruling in coalition with cs, Moreno would need the help of the Socialists or Vox to revalidate the presidency of the Board. Swords has challenged the popular candidate to sign a anti-vox pact if he wants the collaboration of the PSOE, while the ultras put as a condition to invest Moreno to enter the regional government, as the PP accepted in Castile and Leon.
As for the Socialists, who won the 2018 elections, they are in 32 deputies (now they have 33) and they would not have options to form an alternative government. Yes, in the last elections susana diaz achieved 7 parliamentarians more than the PP, now Swords would stay 12 below Moreno. wow, with Macarena Olona as the head of the poster, it would catch the deputy that the popular ones give up and, in a new electoral escalation, it would reach the 22 seats (Today he is 12).
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The hemicycle would be completed with the two brands to the left of the PSOE and with Ciudadanos. Through Andalusia (coalition that integrates Podemos, IU, Más País, Equo, Alianza Verde and the Andalusian People’s Initiative) is located in 8 seatswhile Forward Andalusiawhose candidate is Theresa Rodriguezwould get 2 deputies. In 2018, all this electoral space concurred together under the Adelante Andalucía brand and garnered 17 parliamentarians. As for Cs, whose candidate is the vice president of the Board, John Marinwould be left alone 1 deputy (today he is 21) in his umpteenth regional blow at the polls.
With this distribution of seats, the two government options most likely go through an alliance between the PP and Vox, but the formula of the coalition executive (52.86%) is more than 19 points higher than the formula for government alone with external support from the ultras (33.65%). The coalition has added three tenths since yesterday, while parliamentary support has fallen eight tenths. A absolute majority of the PP It has only a 1.82% probability (two tenths more than the previous day), while the remaining 11.67% include the rest of the options, such as the collaboration of the PSOE or Ciudadanos.