The regional election campaign in Andalusia reaches its last day and EL PERIÓDICO offers a new daily update of the Predi prediction market to learn about the evolution of estimate of seats and the most likely form of government. The result of a research project at the University of Zurich, this electoral tool works like a stock market and is based on the transactions of a remarkable group of specialists in political, social and economic sciences.
In addition, Predi is the only mechanism that allows you to follow the last minute of electoral expectations beyond the polls and until the same election daygiven the legal prohibition on publishing opinion polls during the five days prior to the elections and until the polling stations close.
WHAT IS A PREDICTION MARKET?
In the latest update, this Friday, June 17, the PSOE and Vox have fallen back one seat each in the last 24 hours, which allows the PP to extend its comfortable lead over the Socialists to just two days before the appointment with the polls. Those two deputies are awarded Forward Andalusia, which since the second candidate debate has significantly improved its expectations. The current president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juanma Morenowould comfortably win the elections, but would need the support or abstention of the PSOE or the extreme right of Vox to be reinvested.
The popular ones are 9 seats away from the absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament, set at 55 deputies, and would obtain more representation than the sum of the entire left. The PSOE, vox Y Through Andalusia are the parties that are closest to winning a deputy, while Forward Andalusia it is the force that is closest to losing a seat.
The PSOE of John Swords would worsen its 2018 result despite the collapse of citizens and the retreat of the alternative left, divided in these elections into two brands: Through Andalusia Y Forward Andalusia. The orange disaster shoots the other two right, the PP and Vox. The ultras would almost double their representation in the autonomous community for which they burst onto the Spanish political map four years ago.
The PP leads the predictions with 46 seats (today it has 26), the same as in the previous prediction, 9 from the absolute majority and 15 above the PSOE. After a legislature ruling in coalition with cs, Moreno would need the help of the Socialists or Vox to revalidate the presidency of the Board. Swords has promised not to facilitate the investiture of the popular candidate, while the ultras make entering the regional government a condition, as the PP accepted in Castile and Leon.
As for the Socialists, who won the 2018 elections, they would be left with 31 deputies (now they have 33), one less than yesterday, and they would not have the option of forming an alternative government. Yes, in the last elections susana diaz achieved 7 parliamentarians more than the PP, now Swords would stay 15 below Moreno. wow, with Macarena Olona as the head of the poster, a new electoral escalation would be noted and it would reach the 19 seats (today it has 12), but it has lost a deputy in the last 24 hours and it is the first time in the entire series of predictions that the extreme right falls below 20 representatives.
The hemicycle would be completed with the two brands to the left of the PSOE and with Ciudadanos. Through Andalusia (coalition that integrates Podemos, IU, Más País, Equo, Alianza Verde and the Andalusian People’s Initiative) is located in 8 seatsthe same as yesterday, while Forward Andalusiawhose candidate is Theresa Rodriguezwould get 4 deputies, two more than yesterday. In 2018, all this electoral space concurred together under the Adelante Andalucía brand and garnered 17 parliamentarians.
As for Ciudadanos, whose candidate is the Vice President of the Board, John Marinwould be left alone 1 deputy (Today he is 21), the same record as in the previous prediction, in his umpteenth regional blow at the polls.
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With this distribution of seats, the two government options most likely go through an alliance between the PP and Vox, but the growing distance between the two has caused the formula of the coalition executive (44.84%) have lost more than eight points in the last 24 hours, while the formula for government alone with external support from the ultras (33.16%). The distance between the two options is now 11.7 points, when days ago it had exceeded 30 points in favor of the coalition.
The odds of a absolute majority of the PP they continue to lose steam, in this case they drop to 4.99%, two tenths less than the previous day, while the remaining 17.01% includes the rest of the options, such as the collaboration of the PSOE or Ciudadanos with the PP.