Gavin McKenna was supposed to be a practically sure number one booking at next summer’s NHL booking event.
However, McKenna, who is in his first year at Penn State University, has had a less than stellar first month in the new league. Therefore, McKenna is not a sure number one pick in the 2026 NHL draft.
If the draft were held today, I would still think he would go first, but the discussion among NHL scouts and club management about him would likely be much more heated than most imagined last summer.
I’ve talked to seven NHL scouts who said they would have a different name at No. 1 on their list. The ten scouts I’ve spoken to, meanwhile, claim that McKenna is still clearly “the” player, the future No. 1 pick.
McKenna has never been a perfect player. He has often frustrated scouts over the years with his limited activity and staying out of the game too much, but he alleviated those concerns with his dazzling skills and incredible offensive efficiency at the junior level. Scouts who like McKenna compare him to Patrick Kane; those who are less enthusiastic point to Mitch Marner or Artemi Panarini.
McKenna has struggled to transition her game to the college level. He looks lightning fast with the puck and with his upper hand, but the physicality of the new series has challenged him and he has struggled more than expected on flat courts.
Some feel that if he had returned to the WHL after the summer, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. As a player who put up insane performances and dominated the majors last season, he would have been very likely to repeat the same feat and march into the No. 1 reserve.
But that is not the reality we live in. He went to the NCAAs to play against better players, and now we have some very compelling information based on the opening month of how his game will transition from level to level.
What are the alternatives?
One of the biggest factors keeping McKenna at the top of many scouts’ rankings is the lack of a clear option as the No. 1 backup. There are other excellent promises, but no one has clearly taken the lead as the number one option. Next summer, we may witness a mediocre booking event for the top end.
North Dakota defender Keaton Verhoeff the game is not at all as spectacular and dynamic as McKenna’s. His profile often draws comparisons to Aaron Ekblad, and Ekblad was once selected No. 1 in his own draft ahead of dynamic forwards like Sam Reinhart, William Nylander and Leon Draisaitl.
Windsor Pier by Ethan Belchetz it’s easy to compare the toolkit to 2022 No. 1 pick Juraj Slafkovský. He’s a big wing who can skate, has real skill, plays hard and can finish – all elements that led to Slafkovský’s No. 1 booking, though I think Slafkovský might have a bit more natural offensive flair.
of Muskegon Tynan Lawrence is a dynamic two-way center forward. He is extremely fast and skilled. In some respects, he resembles the profile that led to Nico Hischier being the No. 1 pick in 2017, and is a weaker version of Macklin Celebrin’s profile. Lawrence could be a contender for the number one spot, but he has been injured all fall.
Frölunda’s Ivar Stenberg is a snappy smaller winger, but the profile is probably too similar to McKenna and perhaps a step down in skill level.
Some scouts would also join the conversation By Alberts SmitsJukurie’s big Latvian defender. He has attracted a lot of attention since the beginning of the season in the League.
Jukurie’s Latvian defenseman Alberts Smits is even considered a potential NHL first choice. This season, he has scored 6+5 in 21 matches in the League. Jaakko Stenroos / AOP
McKenna’s way to number one
McKenna is a 180-centimeter winger who is not super fast and is not particularly difficult to play against. Unless his offense is exceptionally good, which it hasn’t been so far this season, his profile doesn’t inspire a GM ladder for someone to make a first-round pick.
I wrote in the summer that I thought McKenna was a mediocre No. 1 backup because of his shortcomings. The difference between him and some of the other great Juniors whose offensive power didn’t hold up against better players – as in the case of Alexis Lafrenière – is due to the new landscape of amateur hockey; we get our first look at it via McKenna.
The season is just beginning. More than half of his college season has yet to be played, with the crucial World Junior Championships ahead, where he is expected to play a leading role on Team Canada. McKenna still has a likely path to the number one spot, but it’s clear that there is now a race for the number one spot.
This article was originally published at The Athletic.
Main article image: Michael Miller / ISI Photos via Getty Images
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